Main Economic Indicators of the World (Part 2)

National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM CHICAGO)

Definition: The Chicago PMI (officially known as the Business Barometer) is a monthly composite index based on opinion surveys of more than 200 Chicago purchasing managers regarding the manufacturing industry. The survey responses are limited to three options: slower, faster and same. As such, the index will not capture if a component is growing but at a much slower rate or vice versa. The index is a composite of seven similarly constructed indexes including: new orders, production, supplier delivery times, backlogs, inventories, prices paid, and employment. New orders and orders backlog indices indicate future production activity. It signals factory-sector expansion when it is above 50 and contraction when below it. The index is seasonally adjusted for the effects of variations within the year, differences due to holidays and institutional changes. Because it is an opinion survey, it is often influenced by respondents’ perception of current events, as opposed to actual hard data. Also, it does not capture technological and production changes, which make it possible for production to expand, while employment contracts. Because the Chicago PMI is released the day before the ISM, it is watched in order to predict the more important ISM report, which is in itself a good leading indicator of overall economic activity. It frequently moves markets

New Home Sales

Definition: The New Home Sales report shows the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends, and economic momentum signaling consumer purchases of furniture and appliances. Simply, the volume of sales indicates housing demand. Also, the monthly supply of homes serves as an input into the level of housing pressure. However, when analyzing sales trends, one must remember to take into account unusual weather and seasonal effects

NY Empire State Index

Definition: The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed's seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years.

Personal Income

Definition: Personal income is simply the income received by individuals, nonprofit institutions, and private trust funds. This indicator is vital for the sales sector. Without an adequate personal income and a propensity to purchase, consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods are limited.

Philadelphia Fed Survey

Definition: A composite diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey is widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends since it is correlated with the NAPM survey and the index of industrial production.

Producer Price Index

Definition: The PPI gauges the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output at all stages of processing. The PPI data is compiled from most sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, mining and agriculture.

Productivity

Definition: The economic measure of efficiency summarizing the value of outputs relative to the value of inputs.

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Definition: The Index is widely used by industrialized economies to assess business confidence. Germany, Japan and the UK use PMI surveys for both manufacturing and services industries. The numbers are arrived at through a series of questions regarding Business activity, New Business, Employment, Input Prices, Prices Charged and Business Expectations. In addition to the headline figures, the prices paid components is highly scrutinized by the markets for evaluating pricing power and inflationary risks.

Retail Sales

Definition The retail sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores from samples representing all sizes and kinds of business in retail trade throughout the nation. It is the most timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns and is adjusted for normal seasonal variation, holidays, and trading-day differences. Retail sales include durable and nondurable merchandise sold, and services and excise taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Excluded are sales taxes collected directly from the customer. It also excludes spending for services, a large component of consumer expenditures. Retail sales is a the first picture of consumer spending for a given month. Retail sales are often viewed ex-autos, as auto sales can move sharply from month-to-month. Also, gas and food component changes are often a result of price changes rather than shifting consumer demand. Retail sales can be quite volatile and the advance reports are subject to large revisions.

Tankan Survey

Definition: An economic survey of Japanese business issued by the central Bank of Japan, the survey is conducted to provide an accurate picture of business trends of enterprises in Japan, thereby contributing to the appropriate implementation of monetary policy . The report is released four times a year in April, July, October and mid-December.

Tertiary Industry Index (Japan)

Definition: The tertiary index measures activity in six industries: utilities, transport and telecommunications, wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, real estate and services.

Treasury International Capital (TIC)

Definition: These Treasury data track the flows of financial instruments into and out of the United States. Instruments tracked include Treasury securities, agency securities, corporate bonds, and corporate equities.

Unemployment Rate

Definition: The percentage of the people classified as unemployed as compared to the total labor force.

Wholesale Trade

Definition: Wholesale Trade is the dollar value of sales made and of inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is one of the components of business inventories. Statistics include sales, inventories, and stock/sale ratios, collected via mail-out/mailback survey of about 7,100 selected wholesale firms.

ZEW

Definition: The ZEW works in the field of user-related empirical economic research. In this context it particularly distinguished itself nationally and internationally by analysing internationally comparative issues in the European context and by compiling scientifically important data bases. The ZEW's duty is to carry out economic research, economic counseling and knowledge transfer. The institute focuses on decision-makers in politics, economics, and administration, scientists in the national and international arena as well as the interested public. Regular interviews on the situation on the financial markets and business-related service providers as well as large-scale annual studies on technological competitiveness of and innovation activities in the economy are representative of the different types of topical information provided by the ZEW. The ZEW is subdivided into the following five research fields:

Others Vs Forex Trading

What are the advantages of Forex over other types of investments?

LOW RISK - HIGH YIELD is the first thing that comes to mind. Forex Trading can be risky and the general rule for investing is: When the return is high the risk is high, but with correct planning and strategy combined with a certain amount of self discipline you can bring the risk factor down to a level that is quite low. It is even possible to strategically plan your market entry and exit levels and control exactly how much you profit or lose. This can be done in a way that allows the investor to still profit even when they misjudge the market 50% of the time! Compare that to other types of investments.

GEARING, is another area that stands out as a major advantage; this also substantially reduces the risk to you the investor. When you trade 1 forex “Mini lot” you will be trading a parcel of money valued at $10,000 USD And you only need $100 USD of your own money! If you trade a regular “Lot” you only need $1,000 USD to trade $100,000 USD. How’s that for gearing? Try and do that with other kinds of investments!

LOW CAPITAL REQUIRED, many investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of a particular investment opportunity, with Forex You only need $300 USD to “get into the market”, and only need to have $100 USD in order to trade your $10,000 “Mini Lot”.

CONVIENIENCE, if you have a laptop and an internet connection you can make a trade in 5- 10 minutes! Depending on how long your computer takes to start up, and the speed of your connection.

LIQUIDITY, many other forms of investing require tying your money up for long periods of time, and if you need to use the capital it can be difficult or impossible to access to it without taking a huge loss (Real Estate). Not so with Forex trading. With Forex Trading you have full control of your capital.

CAN PROFIT IN BULLISH OR BEARISH MARKETS, Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit, Real Estate prices must go up in order to make a capital gain. However, The Forex investor can make a profit in both situations, a rising or falling market.

The Forex Market is open 24 hrs a day.

Can anyone do it or do you need to be some kind of super genius? Forex Trading isn’t for the faint hearted so be warned, while you can get yourself a “Demo Account” and practice as you learn in real time in the real market. You can’t experience the emotions that come with putting your real money on the line.

The Truth About Trading the Forex

I have been trading the Foreign Exchange Currency Market (Forex) live for a few months as of this writing. I have to say it is VERY exciting!

I was beating my brains out trying to trade the Stock Market. Over 40 thousand stocks to watch (way too many). I tried Futures trading. That was just plain wacky. I tried Options Trading. Many more losses than gains. Then I found out about the FOREX!

At first, I was a skeptic. I didn’t believe all the hype (having seen the results of my last trading encounters). Now, I have found it is entirely possible to completely replace your income. In a matter of a few minutes, you can make hundreds of dollars and do this multiple times a week!

Here are only some of the advantages I have found trading the Forex:

You only have to watch one major currency pair (EUR/USD) to make money instead of over 40,000 stocks on the stock exchanges. Feel free to trade other pairs, but get good at it first.

The Forex Market trades 24 hours / 6 days a week. The Forex begins trading on Sunday at 2 pm EST and goes straight through until Friday at 4 pm EST. You can trade according to your schedule, unlike the Stock Market that’s only trading from 9:30 am to 4 pm EST.

You only need $300 to open a trading account with a Forex broker.

You don’t have to pay commissions to the broker. This is HUGH! What a savings! What you see is what you get in your brokerage account. After you close your trade the exact amount goes, instantly, into your account.

You can learn how to trade in a matter of hours. All beginners are welcome.

You don’t have to have any special degree to trade. No one is going to ask you what university you attended or what credentials you have. You are completely anonymous!

World’s best home-based business. You can have your own business with NO employees! Work from home or ANYWHERE you can get an internet connection! (High Speed Broadband connection preferred) You are in 100% control! In fact, you can sit at your computer and trade without having to talk to anyone.

You are now on a level playing field with the enormous international banks. The Forex used to be only available to the banking institutions until around 1999. Now individual traders can trade the Forex to make a healthy income.

Trading the Forex Market offers an unlimited opportunity! The choice is yours. I know which market I chose!

Sue Edwards is starting a new career online working for herself. After working for someone else for years it is time to take advantage of the internet and all it's possibilities. Sue has a very diverse background in: Banking, Taxi Driving, Auto Mechanics, Industrial Mechanics, Internet Trainer, Nuclear Power, Computer Repair and Law Enforcement. Sue is, also, an active foreign currency trader. Sue wants to pass on her considerable knowledge to anyone who is interested!

FOREX Trading-Not Just for the Big Boys

It seems that almost everyone is familiar with the stock market and many employees are actually invested in it because of their company’s 401k. Everyday as part of the news report, we are always given the latest report on the Dow Jones or New York Stock Exchange. Yes, it has its ups and downs and we all know someone who has made large profits as well as devastating losses. The stock market can be very volatile. If there was a market you could trade in without as much of this volatility, had easy access and low cost, what would it be? FOREX.

FOREX (Foreign Exchange market) is the largest financial market in the world with almost $1.5 trillion traded daily. Compare that to $200 billion in the equity market. Basically, FOREX is the exchange where you can sell one country’s currency for another. Let’s say that you purchase British pounds and then after the pounds/dollar ratio goes up, you sell the pounds and buy more dollars. Until recently this market was only accessible by the major banks, large corporations and those with very large investments. Due to federal regulations, the Foreign Exchange market is no longer a monopoly which means you and I can also profit in this huge market.

Let’s look at some of the benefits of FOREX trading.

Accessibility. 24 hours a day, 5.5 days a week. The currency exchange market is an over the counter market which means that there is not one specific location where buyers and sellers meet to exchange currencies. Transactions can be easily handled through websites designed for this purpose.

No exchange or commission fees. Unlike other markets where brokerage fees are incurred, the FOREX market is a worldwide inter-bank market. Trades can be made between the buyer and seller in an instant.

Low minimum Investment. For an initial investment of $300, you can start your FOREX account. This market requires less money to begin trading than any other market. This keeps your risk low.

These are just a few of the many advantages of the FOREX trading. Are you ready to jump into an exciting new adventure that can be very profitable? Can you imagine getting into this market and having someone train you for free? There is a free course currently being offered that will teach both beginners and experienced currency traders how to profit in this market. “FOREX Freedom” is the course you should check out if any of this sounds like the opportunity that you have been waiting for. It will guide you every step of the way.

5 Simple Steps to Turn You Into an Elite Forex Trader

These 5 simple steps will help turn you into a confident, disciplined Forex trader. By using the steps outlined below you can be in the top 10% of all Forex traders. That would be the few that actually make money.

There are going to be two things you notice about these steps:.

They are obvious.

They are simple.

All aspects of Forex trading should fall into those two categories. In fact, one of the biggest mistakes I see Forex traders make is trying to learn and use too much.

However, that is for a different discussion. Back to the 5 simple steps.

Step 1 - Get Yourself Ready To Trade

In my experience with hundreds of traders I have been amazed with how few of them know how to get their game faces on.

They forget trading is a job. The greatest one in the world, but a job nonetheless. It's difficult for them to be self motivated. Like the majority of the world they need someone over their shoulder telling them what to do.

So, find anything in or around you that can be used to prepare to trade.

Take a shower

Drink coffee

Stretch

Read a book

Do Yoga

Anything to clear your mind

Once your mind is clear, move on to Step 2.

Step 2 - Look over your last few trades

Your trading success, just like the Forex itself, will have momentum and patterns. As you gain experience you will learn to see YOUR patterns. You might catch yourself making the same mistakes time and time again.

As you will learn later, you should be keeping a journal of all your trades. I don't mean the records that come with your trading software. Your journal should be as specific as it can be.

Why did I enter a trade? Why did I exit a trade? Was I near support? Was I near resistance?

Just to mention a few of the questions that your journal should answer for every trade. Take note of any repeated mistakes you have made over the last few trades.

Once you have recognized any trading trends, move on to Step 3.

Step 3 - Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Fundamental analysis refers to anything other then price action. In our case it means news.

Technical analysis refers to anything that is related to price action. Price itself, formulas, patterns, etc....

There is a reason why I mention both of those in one step. I wouldn't waste an entire step on fundamental analysis. It doesn't take me 3 minutes. I look to see what piece(s) of news are being released today in order to determine what kind of volatility to expect in the upcoming session.

This helps me when determining which support and resistance levels I expect to come into play.

As far as technical analysis goes. I don't care what tools, indicators, charts you look at. However, be consistent. Don't use MACD and CCI one night, and RSI and Stochastics another. Don't keep changing the length of your moving averages, or switch from simple to weighted to exponential.

The fact is, find what makes the most sense to you. I think it's great to understand what these indicators mean, but there is no need to over analyze.

I would like to add one thought here...use Fibonacci Lines.

Once you have finished your analysis, both fundamental and technical, move on to Step 4.

Step 4 - Money Management (Determine your trade size)

You should have a very well defined money management system. For example, never risk more then 4% / 5% / 10% of your account on one trade. Increase your trade size by one mini for every $400 / $800 / $1,200 in profit.

It has always astonished me how randomly some traders make these decisions. They change their approach day after day. This is a sure fire path to failure.

Determine what makes the most sense to you and stick with it.

Again, I'd like to add in a thought here. You shouldn't be trading a live account until you can consistently make money in a demo account. At least 2 straight weeks of profit, and not because you made $10,000 one day while losing money in 9 out of 10 days. So, assuming you are trading a live account, adjust your position size to meet your predetermined formula.

Once you have determined your trade size, move on to Step 5

Step 5 - Make the Trade!!!

You have done all your homework. You have used all your skills and knowledge. The only thing left is to make the trade.

By now, you know exactly what you expect to happen with the currency pair you are watching. You just have to stay patient until your opportunity arises.

However, once it does, pounce on it like a lion on its prey. Do not hesitate when you see exactly what you expected to see.

Be sure, of course, to place a stop order either with your entry order or immediately after. Also, if you have one, be sure to place your profit target.

Once you enter or exit your trade, start writing. Record your trade in a journal, with all reasons for entry and exit. Be as specific as possible. You will be amazed how much valuable information you will gather over time.

Using these 5 steps you should be able to make drastic strides in your Forex trading. If, however, you are not comfortable with any part of your trading it is imperative that you consider a Forex trading course.