How to Read Forex Quotes

vlvThere are many technical terms associated with foreign exchange trading. These terms are very important to the Forex trading and the information is also crucial for every trader. Two such import terms are quotation and spread. Quotation deals with the ask price of any cash commodity at a certain period of time. The word quote is sued in almost all kinds of businesses and stands for an approximate market price. The quotation is always used only for information purposes. Most foreign currencies are given a quotation in pairs. The Forex trading works only with currency pairs like the USD/EUR. Now the USD is the base pair while the EUR is the quote currency. The world’s financial wholesale markets quote a currency using 5 different yet important numbers. The last number is known as the pip.

Forex quotes come with two kinds of prices the bid price and the ask price. The quotations for both the prices are sent in real time and as a result the Forex market is able to ensure that all traders will receive a fair price while doing a transaction. Like all trading markets, the Forex market also has an immediate cost attached to establishing a position. Let’s take an example. If the USD/AUS bid is at 131.40 and the ask price is at 131.45 then there is a five-pip spread. This spread will define the traders’ cost. To a layman, a Forex quote might sound Spanish but in reality it is very simple. There are two very important things to remember and they are: The base currency, which is the first currency and the value is always 1. The most important currency or the heart of the Forex market is the US Dollar. In a quotation-involving USD as one of the currency, it will always be referred to as the base currency. If there is a quote for a currency pair of USD/JPY and if the value is 160.25, then it means that $1 is equal to 160.25 Yen.

If there is a currency pair, which has the USD as the base and if there is a rise in the currency quote then it would translate into appreciation for Dollar and depreciation for the secondary currency. Like the last example if the quote for the USD/JPY pair increased to 169.35 then that means that the Dollar is stronger. It also means that $1 can now buy 169.35 Yen. There are only three exceptions to this rule and they are the Australian Dollar, the Euro and the British Pound. If the dollar is paired with the Pound, and the quote for GBP/USD shows 2.3647 then it means that 1 pound is equal to $2.3647. In such pairs the US Dollars is not the base currency and a rising quote would mean that the US Dollar is depreciating. The third type of currency pair is the cross currency. This combination doesn’t use the US Dollar like AUD/JPY. In such a scenario, Australian Dollar would be the base currency. Probably now this might sound simpler to everyone.

European Single Currency

This time we’ll talk about European Union (EU) that involves a market with a single currency, a single Central Bank and a single monetary policy. There’ll be discussed European single currency, Monetary, and Fiscal policies, and effect of EU innovations on European countries from the economic perspective. The current situation in Europe and that affecting the members of the EU is one of unbalance. The Maastricht Treaty envisaged the creation of a European Central Bank, ECB. It also laid down set criteria for countries to fulfil before they could join the single currency. There were four key points that the main players of the treaty stressed were the vital characteristics that potential candidates must to be considered for entry.

Price stability in effect this means controlled inflation. The perspective country must for at least one year have had an inflation rate no more than 1.5% above the average of a most the three best performers already existing within the Union. This is because a union such as the EU would require its members to be of similar economic importance. If a candidates inflation rate exceeded the 1.5% precedent set it would harm the way that the EU functions by putting pressure on the top performers to lower their rates to create an equal set rate. Fiscal Convergence, or more simply a budget deficit. The treaty requires that the deficit should not be more than 3% of the GDP [Gross Domestic Product]. The accumulative debts should not exceed more than 60% of the GDP. Another demand is that there is stability within the currency for two years in the normal ERM bands without having devalued. This is as well as the specification that there are requests that the Interest Rate for a year long term shall not have exceeded by more than 2% of the average of at most the best inflation performer that already exists in the EU. The second phase is to start the Monetary union. On the 1st of January 199, states will start to use the Euro as an acceptable currency in the eleven states. National currencies will continue to circulate for a number of years. The ECB will take control over the monetary policy. National currencies will have parity against the Euro and not for instance against the French Franc or the German Deutschmarks.

The National Central Banks can no longer conduct their own Monetary policy. They will merely act as agents of the ECB. The exchange rate risk will be eliminated and there will be a single monetary policy throughout the European Union. The third stage will see the emergence of Euro bank notes and coins. These will circulate along with national currencies. In January 2002, the Euro notes and coins will b withdrawn from circulation as the Euro notes and coins start to circulate more widely. There will be co-ordinated switch to the Euro for transaction with the public. It is expected that the final changeover will be completed by 1st July 2002 when all national notes and coins will be withdrawn. There are several key points that the introduction of the Euro will bring. These factors will eliminate additional costs associated with national currencies, enhance price stability and transparency. It will also simplify travel across Europe, with prices stability and transparency. It will also simplify travel across Europe, with prices becoming fixed and travel more frequent. Another advantage would be the revenue saved in the transferring of one currency to the other, such a saving to the average person could mean a better holiday. If the single currency is embraced by Britain it may stimulate employment and will be able to compete with the dollar which has not been possible with regard to the national currencies of European countries, this would lead to both low inflation, and a stable monetary economy. However there would be some disadvantages of Britain scrapping the pound in favour of the European single currency. Some of these problems would be that the member states will lose their monetary policy freedom; governments will affect the employee’s contract in money terms. To even change all the machines, i.e. Cash machines, tills in be a long and costly process, not only will these be affected but so will all the business who have to change their computer systems. In a counter argument the structural weakness of the Euro, greatly effecting Britain decision. In my conclusion I have highlighted five specific Tests for Britain’s Entry to Europe.

Would entry be good for jobs, Investment will continue to come to Britain. Financial Services Industry will continue to dominate. Whether Business Cycles are compatible, whether there is sufficient flexibility to deal with problems. None of these factors have been met yet and it is unlikely that they will be clearly met. It has been argued that the European Central Bank’s decisions will have an impact on Britain.

Close attention will be required on the interest rates. Currently the interest rates will decline. There are several factors that may work against Britain. There could be a high degree of sterling volatility against the Euro. London may lose its position as the international financial centre. The government and central business will study the success of the Euro and see when the time is right.

Although there’re many facts about the pros and cons of joining the European single currency, ultimately it will be up to the British public in a referendum. It will be interesting to see how the media uses its influence as to whether the public will favour entry into Euro Land.

Overtrading: A Common Mistake

Over trading is one of the biggest causes why traders never make it in the financial markets. With a click of a button, a trader can place a trade anytime he wants. It takes tremendous discipline to hold yourself back from over trading. There are many reasons why one may choose to over trade.

1. Traders without a plan

Traders without a plan are my favorite type of traders because they will always lose. Without a plan, how would one know when to take a trade and when not to? Having a trading plan is a necessity. I can not trade if I do not have a plan for the day. I feel lost without one.

2. Revenge trading

Many new traders become tilted after a loss or a string of losses. This causes them to revenge trade just to break even. This often leads to reckless trading forcing a trade when opportunity is low.

3. Chasing the markets

Alot of new traders feel more pain when they have missed a move than an actual loss. This is why new traders love to chase the markets. If price has moved away from your projected entry point, let it go. There are plenty of more opportunities. Chasing is one of the worst habits a trader can have. Not only does it offer you low rewards, it also gives you a horrible entry and alters your stop loss placement. Always think about the risk before the profits.

When you have a plan to follow, it is easy to filter out bad trades from good one. This keeps you discipline and selective in your trades. I personally do not like trading more than 5 round trips a day. Patience is a virtue. There are always good high probability trading opportunities everyday. Just sit tight and don't jump the gun.

One way to control a loss is by reducing your size. The problem with gamblers is that they will often double up their stake so they can get even quicker. This usually leads to a greater loss and devastation. Having the strength to grind your way back from a loss is important in trading. Whenever I am having a losing streak, I will trade small and gradually recover. This also gives me the confidence I need after a string of losses.

Choosing A Forex Trading System – Part 3

OK, in our last installment I showed you how a sample of a Forex trading system with a high percentage of winning trades could still be a losing system overall.

The whole point of the exercise was to get you to take a closer look at the performance results of trading systems that you are interested in pursuing. Now that you know that it is possible to lose money trading a system with over 90% winners, you’ll be able to look at the next advertisement for a Forex trading system much more objectively.

Let’s take another look at our example:

Trading System A Performance

Number of trades = 1000
% of Winning trades = 92%
% of Losing trades = 8%
Average Winning trade = $180
Average Losing Trade = -$2100

A few quick calculations tells us that this trading system had Total Net Profit of -$2,400

The Total Net Profit is an important factor in any trading system although it doesn’t tell the full story.

Here’s how the Total Net Profit is calculated:

Total Net Profit = Gross Profit – Gross Loss

In our example above these figures would be:

$165,600 – $168,000 = -$2,400

As stated above the Total Net Profit for this trading system is negative. This is important to note. As you can see, if the only information you originally had access to was the percentage of winning trades you would have started to trade a losing trading system. Now with a little more information such as the Total Net Profit we are clearly able to see that all the glitters is not gold.

Please note that it is unlikely that anyone would be openly advertising the fact that even though their trading system has a high percentage of winning trades that it is a losing system.

In the next part of our series we’re going to take the performance data we currently have at our disposal and generate a very important number to know in evaluating any trading system.

5 Kick-Arse Tactics To Seize Favorable Probabilities at Forex

As you ponder how to balance your forex portfolio, it is important to map out sure-fire strategies beforehand.

With your plan, you optimize your reward with respect to the expected risk, and tweak probabilities to your favor. Forex strategies must be disciplined and limit risk; simultaneously, it positions you at the most favorable advantage in the market.

A beginner’s strategy is the fundamental Moving Away Average, which is draws predictions from technical study over 12 periods, with each period 15 minutes in length. Trading decisions based on the MAA technique considers historical data to arrive at relatively safe predictions.

We use a simple algorithm for MAA. When currency price crosses above the twelfth period, simply move away it is a signal to stop and reverse. In this way a long position will be liquidated and a short position will be established, both using market orders. This system keeps trades constantly active in the market, with either a short position or a long position after the first signal. Risk is minimized.

Intermediate level strategy calls for analysis of support and resistance levels. The market likes to trade above support levels and trade below resistance levels. If either a support or a resistance level is broken, then the market follows through in the direction given. These breakpoints can be determined by analysis of the chart and assessment of where the chart has encountered unbroken support or resistance in times past. Identify these critical points and you can ascertain periods when you plan to open or close a position.

An advanced tactic that many consider exotic is the balloon strategy. The Balloon is an option that balloons, or increases in size when triggers are breached. Take the case of an investor who predicts that the dollar will gain strength against the Euro in the near future and is currently trading at one hundred, the investor will see one hundred ten as having strong resistance, but he also believes it will be broken.

Now, rather than buying straight US dollars at one hundred for the next six months the investor will purchase at “at the money” balloon call with a One Hundred Ten trigger and multiple of two. The investor then acquires a One Hundred Ten call in USD110mm. However if the dollar and Euro ever trade at or above one hundred ten, the 110 call will double to USD 20mm.

A day trader at heart? The Double Bottom is definitely for you. Significant to the short term trader, the double bottoms indicate a possible major change in currency sentiment and indicates a shifting trend. The pattern is used on all times frames, and many compelling intraday and long term bull markets are identified from this setup.

Analysts recognize that double bottoms quickly reflect strong support levels. When prices fail to break support in the down trending markets on more than one occasion we see powerful changes of trend. These reversal signals are revealing. The most common portal where a trader will open on a double bottom trade is upon a maneuver through the high of the two troughs. This high embodies secondary resistance, and when penetrated confirms a price reversal. From this vantage point, stops are placed around the lows of the patterns because a move below lows negates the pattern premise. Easy isn’t it?

To round of your arsenal of forex implements, arm yourself with the ichimoku chart. These charts consist of following indicators, which identify support and resistance levels and create trading beacons in a manner that is akin to moving averages. A contrast however between both is that the Ichimoku chart lines swing forward in time, creating vast swathes of support and resistance zones while decreasing the risk of trading false breakouts. They are arrived at with data on trend existence, direction, support and resistance.

New Frontiers in FOREX Market Analysis

This type of article is one of the most fun for me to write because it's really just a romp through the imagination. Since the 1990's, I have made a hobby out of exploring new and varied ideas for analyzing the markets, and this is a great opportunity to dust off some of my old notes, publish some of those ideas and perhaps get some feedback on them. I'm also looking forward to using some of the following concepts in my ongoing research work on FOREX price behavior. So put on your "what if..." hats and let's get started!

Market Models - Old & New

Most traders are familiar with the two basic schools of market analysis that we call Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis. In the 1970's, members of the academic community proposed a new model of the market known as the "Efficient Market Hypothesis". This is more commonly known as the "Random Walk Theory" and basically said that the first two schools of thought were both wasting their time. In response to the Random Walk Model, other academics put forth an even newer theory of how markets work called "Behavioral Finance". These are all examples of comprehensive explanations of what factors drive market prices. Here's a brief summary of market models, some of which are only in their infancy:

Fundamental: Market prices are driven by tangible events and conditions in the real world, such as earnings, sales, management, natural disasters, weather, economic conditions, geopolitical tensions and so forth.

Technical: Market prices are driven by what prices have done in the past. As traders observe these past and present price movements, their expectations about future prices lead to feelings of greed and fear which in turn create buying and selling pressures.

Random Walk: Current market prices are efficient reflections of all known fundamental and technical information, so we can discern nothing about future price movements. The factors that cause future price movement will be so varied that such movements can only be random in nature.

Behavioral Finance: Prices are driven by human psychology which is not always rational. Traders may base expectations about price movements, risk and reward on erroneous reasoning, thus causing prices to behave in non-random ways. Bubbles and crashes are classic examples of this.

Chaos Theory: Market prices are part of a non-linear dynamic system in which outputs are re-introduced back into the system as inputs, causing complex behavioral loops and very sensitive dependence on slight variations in conditions.

Fractal Geometry: Price patterns are recursively nested, meaning that a large pattern may be composed of several smaller similar or even identical patterns and so on through all time scales. Elliot Wave Theory is a classic example of this idea.

Scott's Emergent Property Model: I've discussed this one in more detail in other articles, but the idea is basically that identifiable properties of price behavior emerge from the combination of unique individual trading styles of the current market participants. An analogy would be how a person's personality emerges from the combination of individual neurons in their brain. This price behavior changes gradually over time in an evolutionary way in the same way that the behavior of an organism changes over time due to both internal changes in its makeup and external pressures from its environment.

My apologies if I have neglected or grossly mis-represented any of the various ways of explaining what makes the market tick.

Finding the Best Broker for Forex Trading

When we talk of any money transactions like those pertaining to the stock exchange, one hears a lot about brokers. FOREX traders are known to use brokers to carry out their transactions for them. So how would one define a broker? In the true sense of the word, a broker is a person or a company that a prospective investor trusts to buy and sell as per his decisions. He then pays the broker a commission which is how the brokers earn their money. A fund for margin trading necessitates the FOREX broker to be connected with big financial institution like banks. As protection against fraud and abusive trade practices a broker should be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant or FCM with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or CFTC.

An account would need to be set up with a FOREX broker before trading FOREX. There are a lot of brokers available on the Internet and one need to go through all that they are offering as part of their services before making an informed decision and ensure that you are apprised of the fees and other charges involved. As with all businesses the best way to advertise is the kind that goes by word of mouth and this applies to FOREX trading as well. Get information from friends and associates who have been dealing with brokers and find out the pitfalls in any that you need to be aware of and if they had any problems with their particular broker.

Everyone who has something to sell will have excellent pre-sales services and these may differ from the actual service they provide once you are registered with them. Look out for this aspect especially if you are looking at online FOREX brokers. Brokers need to be quick with buying and selling and ideally an online broker should ensure automatic execution with clearly stated policies on slippage and what percentage of slippage to expect in normal and fast moving markets. You would need to know what spread the broker is talking about, whether it is fixed or variable as per type of account, do mini accounts attract wider spreads and the charges for this, if any. More profit is accrued by the trader for smaller spreads but it may lead to a trade off between service and spread so go into the nitty gritty of the deal before signing up with any broker.

It is essential to understand the broker's margin terms before you take on a contract with any broker as the life blood of the FOREX trading is these margin accounts. You would need information on things like the calculation of margins, requirements of the margin, whether the margin changes are based on the currency that is being traded and whether the broker has different margins for different accounts like mini accounts and standard accounts.

Fast moving markets need that you have reliability and an ability to perform and since trading software is very essential for online FOREX traders, see that you pan the options available, maybe try a demo or two and then make your decision. Ideally the software should have auto trading, trailing stops and chart trading as some of its special features. They may be charged extra so check what you need and go through the charges with the broker as well. Minimum account balances, interest account balances, currency trading and if non-standard sized lots are traded as well as clients' funds insurance and to what extent are some things for which the broker would have certain policies and one must get all the information on them.

Two Forex Technical Indicators That Will Help The Trader

The objective of every forex trader is to become a profitable trader. But achieving this goal is not always an easy task, so it’s vital that you learn how to use as many of the technical indicators as you can. These indicators are very useful parameters that will tell you with a pretty high probability what the forex markets are more likely to do in their apparently disordered behavior.

MACD and RSI are two of these indicators; but what’s the meaning of these letters? Here is the answer:

Moving Average Convergence Divergence: MACD is a more detailed method of using moving averages to find trading signals. This indicator was developed by Gerald Appel, the MACD plots the difference between a 26-day exponential moving average and a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day moving average is generally used as a trigger line, this means that when the MACD crosses below this trigger it is a bearish signal (time to sell) and when it crosses above it, it's a bullish signal (time to buy).

This indicator will help the trader using MACD studies to have an early signal of what the market will do next. When the MACD turns positive and makes higher lows while prices are still tanking, this is usually a strong buy signal. Conversely, when the MACD makes lower highs while prices are making new highs, this could be a strong bearish divergence and a sell signal.

The other indicator, RSI, stands for Relative Strength Index. The RSI indicator measures the markets activity as to whether it is over bought or over sold. It gives a trader an indication of which way the Market is moving at the moment. It is important to note, that this is a leading indicator and thus allows one to see what the market is about to do next and then act accordingly in order to have gains. The higher the RSI number, the more over bought it is and conversely the lower the RSI number, the more over sold it is. It is a great leading indicator for the micro and macro reversals in the forex market.

Trading Is a Mind Game

Some of the greatest philosophers, priests, scientists and sportsman have said that winning is not an art, it all in the mind! So if you are planning to invest in Forex trading then you need to be mentally prepared. It is one of the best mind games that you will ever get to play. The first thing to do is change your mindset. Instead of thinking like any other normal person, you need to start thinking like a speculator, like a Forex trader. There many examples of Forex traders with experience and capability waste their career in the most unimaginable manner. This happens when they waste most of their time trying to perfect their knowledge of analyzing and reading Forex trading charts etc. As a result 95% of the traders have lost in the long run.

Anyone with an average intelligence can understand how the Forex trading market works although it might take a few years of following the market. But that’s about it! It doesn’t take a great IQ or knowledge to beat the odds and earn a profit in a Forex trading. The most important thing is the decision that you make. The decision making process maybe long and there might be some planning behind it but sometimes traders seem to take too long to take a decision and often that ends up being a wrong decision. This is one of the most important things behind success or failure. Some traders make quick decisions but are not able to stick by them or do a follow up and as a result they end up being on the losing side.

The reason why people avoid making a decision is because it’s painful and traders often have a ready assumption that their decision might not be the right one. So basically, the Forex trading market is playing with their mind. But they are not able to understand that if they can have some confidence in what they are doing, they will be able to sustain the pressure. There are many traders who shy away from making even short-term decisions. The pain being talked about has nothing to do with actual losses. It is from the fact that the traders are speculating already about future losses and feeling helpless that they don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow. At the end of the day everything depends on the trader’s ability to take a decision in spite of knowing that there is no guarantee to the Forex markets movement and taking a right decision. The Forex market is volatile and ups and downs are going to be there always. This is one fact every trader needs to live with. Keeping in mind the volatility, the Forex trader has to keep cool and be disciplined. It is like mentally preparing yourself in advance for what lays ahead so that you will not be caught off guard. The same mind game that most generals’ use in a war is what Forex trading offers.

Beginning Education In Forex Trading – Change Your Portfolio, Your Profits and Your Life

Are you aware that by beginning education in forex trading you could significantly boost your investment income….and reduce the time and the fees you’re now sacrificing for other investment methods? You may be thinking, "Why Forex instead of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or real estate?" There’s several benefits to Forex trading. Beginning education in forex trading could be the “turning point” of your financial future.

For years only the "big boys" i.e. large banks, people with millions to invest, and large companies with operations in more than one nation were the only ones to reap the rewards of Forex trading. All that has changed. Now individuals like you and I can easily use forex trading as a regular means for investment profits. Online Forex trading sites are readily available to the small investor. Some will even allow you to open as account with as little as $250.00. Most, if not all, of these sites have beginning education in forex trading available free of charge.

Beginning Education In Forex Trading- The Basics

Trading currencies is not affected by changing bull or bear markets. The trading occurs in pairs. An example would be trading US dollars to the Euro.

Simply put forex (foreign exchange) trades are made based upon the value of one currency as compared to another. The values of currencies are constantly changing. Quotes on prices are quoted in pips (percentage in point). If a particular currency quote goes higher, it means that currency is stronger. If it goes lower it means the currency weakening.

To place a forex trade means you’re buying one currency and selling another. Basic factors used to determine how and when to place trades are relative interest rates, economic stability, political stability, and the trade status of the country. Eighty percent of forex trade on a daily basis involves nine major currencies: the U.S. dollar, Euro, yen, Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar.

Paper trading is a good method to use when beginning education in forex trading. It gives you the ability to see in real-time the results of your chosen trades without affecting your financial stability. Most online sites allow you to “practice trade” before you begin investing real money.

Forex trading offers more benefits than any other investment market. Forex trading outweighs traditional investing in crucial areas. The first is the ability for timely trading. If you’re trading stocks, it must be done in an eight hour day, five day a week schedule. Forex trades six days a week, 24 hours a day. Forex trading allows you to trade on your schedule. You’re able to minimize the potentials for loss when occurrences dictate…not when the market opens.

Lower transaction costs are another primary benefit of trading forex. With stocks broker fees, and/or commissions per transaction must be deducted from profits. In the forex market online forex site make their money between the bid price and the asking price. Thus you’re able to invest as much or as little as you want without fluctuations in your profits.

Specific industry moves have little effect, if any on forex trading. Bull or bear markets don’t have the effect as with trading stocks.

In summary, trading forex is quite different than other investment vehicles. Initially it may take you more time to grasp the overall specifics and develop strong analysis techniques. The time spent initially can bring you a lifetime of rewards. Investigate beginning education in forex trading today.

Automated Trading Orders in Forex Trading

Practical trading involves lots of simulations and automated trade orders using the power of computer. Charting, graph plotting, and automated trade orders; all these are used to enlighten your routine trading work and it spares you more time in studying the market.

Some of the well known trading orders are zero stops, stop order, limit orders, good till cancelled (GTC), as well as market on close order. These orders are used along with different trade strategies in different trading market. In Forex trading, limit orders and stop loss orders are the two auto-trade order used.

Limit orders:

As a trader, you can place these orders when you wish to buy/sell the currency at a better price compare to current market. Limit orders are often used to take win automatically when the price reaches certain level. For example, current EUR/USD is at 1.2693 and your predetermined limit order is to sell all at 1.2700. The order will auto-execute whenever the price reach 1.2700.

It is important to learn that limit orders can be only placed at least the minimum distance from the current market price. Also, such order can be cancelled or modified anytime by you as long as the limit order price tag is set further than the minimum distance allowed.

Stop orders:

Stop orders, or sometimes known as stop loss orders, are automated orders used to restrict and limit the losses of an open position. It can also be used to lock on a profit in your trade when the market is going in your favored direction.

Stop orders work similarly to limit sell orders, it predetermine what is the lowest price to sell in certain deals. For example, EUR/USD 1.2693 with stop order at 1.2685, the system will sell your portion of USD if the price touches the 1.2685 level. The price 1.2685 is guaranteed on such case, meaning even if the market sink too fast and it falls below 1.2685, you still can sell your money in the price that you set earlier. Stop order works perfectly well in handling your risks profile.

New Frontiers in FOREX Market Analysis

This type of article is one of the most fun for me to write because it's really just a romp through the imagination. Since the 1990's, I have made a hobby out of exploring new and varied ideas for analyzing the markets, and this is a great opportunity to dust off some of my old notes, publish some of those ideas and perhaps get some feedback on them. I'm also looking forward to using some of the following concepts in my ongoing research work on FOREX price behavior. So put on your "what if..." hats and let's get started!

Market Models - Old & New

Most traders are familiar with the two basic schools of market analysis that we call Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis. In the 1970's, members of the academic community proposed a new model of the market known as the "Efficient Market Hypothesis". This is more commonly known as the "Random Walk Theory" and basically said that the first two schools of thought were both wasting their time. In response to the Random Walk Model, other academics put forth an even newer theory of how markets work called "Behavioral Finance". These are all examples of comprehensive explanations of what factors drive market prices. Here's a brief summary of market models, some of which are only in their infancy:

Fundamental: Market prices are driven by tangible events and conditions in the real world, such as earnings, sales, management, natural disasters, weather, economic conditions, geopolitical tensions and so forth.

Technical: Market prices are driven by what prices have done in the past. As traders observe these past and present price movements, their expectations about future prices lead to feelings of greed and fear which in turn create buying and selling pressures.

Random Walk: Current market prices are efficient reflections of all known fundamental and technical information, so we can discern nothing about future price movements. The factors that cause future price movement will be so varied that such movements can only be random in nature.

Behavioral Finance: Prices are driven by human psychology which is not always rational. Traders may base expectations about price movements, risk and reward on erroneous reasoning, thus causing prices to behave in non-random ways. Bubbles and crashes are classic examples of this.

Chaos Theory: Market prices are part of a non-linear dynamic system in which outputs are re-introduced back into the system as inputs, causing complex behavioral loops and very sensitive dependence on slight variations in conditions.

Fractal Geometry: Price patterns are recursively nested, meaning that a large pattern may be composed of several smaller similar or even identical patterns and so on through all time scales. Elliot Wave Theory is a classic example of this idea.

Scott's Emergent Property Model: I've discussed this one in more detail in other articles, but the idea is basically that identifiable properties of price behavior emerge from the combination of unique individual trading styles of the current market participants. An analogy would be how a person's personality emerges from the combination of individual neurons in their brain. This price behavior changes gradually over time in an evolutionary way in the same way that the behavior of an organism changes over time due to both internal changes in its makeup and external pressures from its environment.

My apologies if I have neglected or grossly mis-represented any of the various ways of explaining what makes the market tick.

Day Trading - Why 98% of People Lose Money in the Markets

Almost all people that venture into the world of Day Trading do so with grand thoughts of wealth and easy money. 99% of these people will wind up handing their hard earned money to myself and others which have figured out the game. Yes, it is a game that is extremely hard to master and has endless dead ends. It can begin to feel as if you are a mouse in a never ending maze. You can spend years running around the maze working on endless ideas and methods all of which lead to the same inevitable end.. Losing money!

You might be wondering, who is this guy writing this article? How did supposedly he, and others learn the secret to the game. I would like to claim that I have superior intelligence but that would not be true. Like Edison the inventor of the light bulb, once you have done things wrong long enough, lost enough money, and have been beaten down to the point of giving up, only then, if you can muster the fortitude will you finally begin to see through all of the hyped claims of the failed systems and unyielding methods from your past.

The plain truth is, the sooner you stop looking for the easy money the quicker you will begin to understand why and how those that do win the game take an unfair advantage over those that don’t.

Each person's first introduction into the game of trading is always because someone has been sold on the idea that trading is simple and easy if you purchase the “right system” or methodology from the guru of the hour. These marketers are relentless at taking your money. They are system/methodology designers which understand exactly how to manipulate the various system components to fit anyone‘s taste and temperament. How many times have you been told that you simply need to find a system that fits you and your personality. This is a half truth as no system will fit you for very long if it is not consistently profitable.

Most systems being sold on the internet today clearly explain a entry set-up, but are so vague in regards to exit that they are completely useless. I can’t tell you the number of systems/methods that I have personally purchased that are nothing short of out right fraud in regards to their advertising. Most systems have been back-tested and optimized to the point that on paper they look unbelievable, but in real time they simply fall apart. It seems that people are willing, even anxious to hand over their hard earned money to anyone claiming to hold the key to easy riches.

Now that you have been warned about the fraud and false claims within the industry lets discuss one of the primary reasons that most people lose money. It is the bid/ask spread of entering and exiting the market along with the cost of commissions that stack the deck heavily against those that use methods which try to scalp small profits out of the market. These costs can easily cost you any chance of being profitable. Let me explain, if using the S&P 500 e-mini contract, the minimum tick size is .25 point or $12.50. When you enter and exit a position you will be giving up 2 ticks or $25.00 plus commissions to the spread. Lets say you are using a method in which you are trying to achieve a 2 point target or $100.00 with a limited risk of also only $100.00. Your spread give-up and commission will run you at least $30.00 per contract. This means that the position is already deep in the hole before you begin. The market will have to move and extra $30.00 before you will achieve your target. Theoretically in price movement terms, a win is worth $70.00 and a loss will cost you $130.00. You must win almost 2 times to every loss just to breakeven.

How To Choose a Forex Trading System That Works and Suits You

There are so many different trading systems you could use to trade the forex market, some better suited to certain people than others. For example some people may find it easier to comprehend and take into account fundamental factors as opposed to looking at a screen covered in technical indicators, and vice-versa.

The first logical step in determining what type of trading system would best suit you is actually being aware and understand the widely known methods of analysis used in trading the currency market. Once you are aware of the tools that are available, you can generally tell what type of analysis suits you. For example some of the main technical analysis methods which are popular include:

* Pivot points
* Chart patterns
* Fibonacci retracements
* Candlestick patterns

And some fundamental factors which are widely used include analyzing:

* Interest rates
* Trade balances
* Unemployment rates
* Gross domestic product (GDP)

You may now actually be able to develop your own system by combining certain methods of analysis together, giving you a method which you are comfortable with. On the other hand you may decide that you would like to trade someone else’s system, either way, that brings us to the next step which is determining the profitability of a trading system.

Determining Profitability

Most people would think that back testing is the best way to determine a systems profitability. However back testing doesn’t always give you a true idea of how profitable a system is. The reason for this is because when you’re back testing your system on historical charts, you are only seeing the obvious setups which have occurred, and not always seeing the ones that are less obvious. These less obvious ones sometimes can produce losses, which is why back testing isn’t always the best method to implement.

A better method of determining profitability is by trading your system in real-time with a demo account. This would give you a true understanding of what your system is capable of. This would also allow you to familiarize yourself with your trading platform at the same time. When determining profitability you must look at it in terms of expectancy and opportunity.

Expectancy & Opportunity

These two factors together will be able to tell you what you could expect to make over a period of time. Expectancy is calculated with the following formula:

(Probability of winning × average win) – (Probability of losing × average loss)

This will give you a figure which is the average amount you can expect to make per trade. This shouldn’t be a negative amount, if it is you should look at some other method of trading since you cannot make money on a system that produces a negative expectancy. Obviously the higher this figure is the better. Now to the opportunity factor.

The opportunity factor is how often you are able to trade using your system. By multiplying your expectancy figure with your opportunity factor it will tell you how much you could expect to make over a period of time. The more opportunity you have to trade, the more money you should expect to make. This now brings us to the last component of a trading system, money management.

Money Management

Without proper money management you will end up as a statistic. In other words one of those 90%+ of traders who loose their money. Money management tells you how much of your account balance to risk per trade. The whole point of money management is to ensure your survival over the long term, and to preserve your capital.

The most common form of money management is the percent risk model which tells you not to risk more than x percent of your account balance on any one trade. A range between 1-3% is generally an accepted amount which has been a reliable percentage to use in order to make money in the long term.

How to Trade Forex The Safe Way

In order to reduce losses in trading in the forex market, you will need the necessary and adequate amount of risk management systems in place. Staying afloat is essential in staying in the forex game. It will be unlikely that you will recover from a loss of money that you cannot afford to lose. A good trader will know how to reduce losses quickly and also ride profitable positions higher. Systems such as stop losses and profit caps are needed to keep losses manageable.

Stop losses are so essential to make a successful trade that most brokers will not allow you to trade without a stop-loss in place. A stop-loss is a system that automatically closes out a position when the bid or offer price reaches the given level. For example if your long (you have bought) a currency, your stop-loss will be placed below the current market price and will be activated if the price falls past this threshold. Stop losses are beneficial to traders because it is positive knowledge that you’re protected from a downside risk. This is useful for novice traders because they can become ‘emotionally trapped’ in a falling trade.

Guaranteed stop-losses are offered by some brokers and will provide extra protection for traders. Rare intervals where the market gaps – decreasing without trading at each consecutive rate – and traders who have no acquired guaranteed stop-losses are only assured of getting the next available price. Factors such as central bank or government intervention, political, war or natural crises may cause falls that expose traders without guaranteed stop-losses to substantial losses. Stop-losses can be moved higher or lower to suit the trader. By reducing the stop-loss (placing it closer to the purchase price) you’ll limit the potential size of your loss and by increasing it (placing it further away from the purchase price) you will increase your exposure.

Profit caps are opposite to stop-loss because you place a limit on the profits that you have made. It is beneficial for traders who leave trades unattended over night; a profit cap will be triggered when the market moves through a given threshold and will secure the profit made for the trader.

Automatic triggers are needed to limit the risk but money management is as important. This means making the decision on how much money you can afford to lose on a trade and how much you are able to invest. It is also recommended that you invest no more than 10% of your available funds in any single trade. These practices and systems will certainly help you in protecting your funds from losses. Mental discipline is also needed to become a successful trader.

Entries, Exits, Emotions and Trading Profitably

Entries & exits, emotions and making money.

Do you have difficulty or challenges with any of these?

It's understandable if you do. These are the most common challenges for traders, and the most burning questions that are brought up on a very regular basis. I know exactly how you feel. The frustration of knowing that you're smart enough to make it work, yet losing money or just breaking even really is nerve-racking.

Seeing your money disappear with trades where the market moves against you and you hang on to it, hoping that it will turn around, then having it turn into a sizable loss is just gut-wrenching.

Even worse is when you miss out on one that you pick right or either act too late or hang on to it too long and watch your profits vaporize.

Then the confusion sets in. You get gun-shy about even entering trades and your confidence is circling the drain. It's a downward spiral that is totally opposite of what you expected when you got into trading.

There is hope, though.

You are definitely smart enough, and have what it takes. I know that because you would never have been in a position to even consider trading if you hadn't already proved it.

You're experiencing challenges with the entries and exits, emotions and making money because those challenges are the result of what happened when you first started trading. Nobody told you about it because they didn't know.

What happened is a series of events that seem perfectly normal and logical, on the surface. But when you look deeper, you see that these events actually set people up to do things that they wouldn't do otherwise.

Like jump into a treacherous endeavor unaware of what they're in for and unprepared to deal with the traps and pitfalls that await them.

Like putting substantial sums of money at high risk, without properly planning the trades out and having an exit strategy fully in place.

Like I said, I know how you feel. I've been there and felt the anguish of watching my money disappear in trading. Like you, I got lured into trading naive of what really happens and what it takes to truly trade profitably.

Fortunately, after considerable research and reflection, I was able to see the forest for the trees and discover the truth of what happens and why so many smart people don't make money trading.

When I first made the discovery and thought on the matter, it almost sounded like a mental and emotional trap that would be part of a conspiracy, although it could never be proved.

It sure does seem like a lot of good people get sucked into trading and their money taken by a very small few.

If you're considering trading or if you've already begun and you're finding difficulty, then you'd better get your guard up and think twice before continuing.

You have real money at stake, and the odds are more against you than you realize. You can turns those odds around, if you can get out of the "get rich quick" frame of mind and take a more realistic look at trading, with some good guidance from someone who's already been down that road.

The Size Of The Forex Market

Most of the experienced traders around the world consider the Forex market as the best and most profitable of the capital markets. During many years forex trading had been the great and exclusive domain of major banks, very large financial institutions and the countries central banks; a good example of such a bank would be the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. But over the last few years, thanks to the internet era, the market has been opened to anyone willing to learn the right techniques in forex trading and with the intentions of making substantial profits as the above mentioned institutions, that annually and consistently make pretty high profits from trading in the Foreign Exchange market.

The foreign exchange market (FOREX) will exist wherever one currency is being traded for another. This market, also known as “currency market”, is by far the largest market in the world in terms of all the cash value traded per day, this trading includes all that is being performed between large commercial banks, central banks, currency speculators, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. The trades taking place in the forex markets across the globe it’s known to exceed on average $1.9 trillion/day. Retail traders, this is, small speculators are only a small part of this market, but this doesn’t mean they can’t grab huge profits if they have learn the right way to trade the Forex. These individual traders participate in the market through broker firms.

According to many experts, the foreign exchange market will have doubled in size in just three years, this thanks to increased participation by fund managers and pension funds. A financial services research firm said it expected the total global average daily volumes on the forex market to exceed $3,000bn next year (2007). Forex volumes, which rose from $1,770bn in 2004 to $2,000bn last year, were set to rise to $2,600bn this year and $3,600bn next year.

Day Trading - Why 98% of People Lose Money in the Markets

Almost all people that venture into the world of Day Trading do so with grand thoughts of wealth and easy money. 99% of these people will wind up handing their hard earned money to myself and others which have figured out the game. Yes, it is a game that is extremely hard to master and has endless dead ends. It can begin to feel as if you are a mouse in a never ending maze. You can spend years running around the maze working on endless ideas and methods all of which lead to the same inevitable end.. Losing money!

You might be wondering, who is this guy writing this article? How did supposedly he, and others learn the secret to the game. I would like to claim that I have superior intelligence but that would not be true. Like Edison the inventor of the light bulb, once you have done things wrong long enough, lost enough money, and have been beaten down to the point of giving up, only then, if you can muster the fortitude will you finally begin to see through all of the hyped claims of the failed systems and unyielding methods from your past.

The plain truth is, the sooner you stop looking for the easy money the quicker you will begin to understand why and how those that do win the game take an unfair advantage over those that don’t.

Each person's first introduction into the game of trading is always because someone has been sold on the idea that trading is simple and easy if you purchase the “right system” or methodology from the guru of the hour. These marketers are relentless at taking your money. They are system/methodology designers which understand exactly how to manipulate the various system components to fit anyone‘s taste and temperament. How many times have you been told that you simply need to find a system that fits you and your personality. This is a half truth as no system will fit you for very long if it is not consistently profitable.

Most systems being sold on the internet today clearly explain a entry set-up, but are so vague in regards to exit that they are completely useless. I can’t tell you the number of systems/methods that I have personally purchased that are nothing short of out right fraud in regards to their advertising. Most systems have been back-tested and optimized to the point that on paper they look unbelievable, but in real time they simply fall apart. It seems that people are willing, even anxious to hand over their hard earned money to anyone claiming to hold the key to easy riches.

Now that you have been warned about the fraud and false claims within the industry lets discuss one of the primary reasons that most people lose money. It is the bid/ask spread of entering and exiting the market along with the cost of commissions that stack the deck heavily against those that use methods which try to scalp small profits out of the market. These costs can easily cost you any chance of being profitable. Let me explain, if using the S&P 500 e-mini contract, the minimum tick size is .25 point or $12.50. When you enter and exit a position you will be giving up 2 ticks or $25.00 plus commissions to the spread. Lets say you are using a method in which you are trying to achieve a 2 point target or $100.00 with a limited risk of also only $100.00. Your spread give-up and commission will run you at least $30.00 per contract. This means that the position is already deep in the hole before you begin. The market will have to move and extra $30.00 before you will achieve your target. Theoretically in price movement terms, a win is worth $70.00 and a loss will cost you $130.00. You must win almost 2 times to every loss just to breakeven.

How To Read Forex Currency Pairs

The Forex market is known by its immense volume of transaction per trading day, and it is because of this that it’s impossible for a single of the market’s forces to noticeably control the market direction for any considerable length of time, opening many opportunities for traders of any size.

Among the most important factors that influence currency prices you must consider the economic and political conditions in the home country of the particular currencies you are willing to trade. There are three important factors influencing the price f any currency: Inflation, political stability, and interest rates. All this factors fall into what’s known as “fundamentals” in the trading world. Additionally, governments will always be a factor in the currency markets, they will often try to establish some kind of control over the price of their currency by either intentionally flooding the market, to lower the price; or buying large quantities, to raise the price.

The first thing you should know if you want to read currency quotes correctly is that each particular currency is given a three letter code which is used in forex quotes. The most common currencies are: European euros (EUR), US dollars (USD), United Kingdom pounds (GBP), Australian dollars (AUD), Japanese yen (JPY), Swiss francs (CHF) and Canadian dollars (CAD). One more thing you must learn when you start trading forex is that the foreign exchange prices are indicated by quotes in a fraction like mode, and this are called currency pairs. The first currency is called the 'base' and the second is called the 'quote' currency. In the following example: USD/EUR = 1.1896

This currency pair is formed by US dollars and European euros. The base currency (USD) is always considered ‘1’ and the quote currency shows how much it costs to buy one unit of the base currency. In this example, 1 US dollar will cost you 1.1896 euros.

By examining the data of any trading software, you will notice that forex quotes are shown in a 'bid' and 'ask' prices format. What ‘Bid’ means is the price that buyers will pay for the base currency, while at the same time selling the quote currency, and ‘Ask’ is the price at which the sellers will sell the base currency, while at the same time buying the quote currency.

Mindset of Trading

Here the 5 areas to share about the mindset and how to become a better trader and the articles below serve as a reminder to me just as important (maybe more important) than learning the technical indicators.

Develop Consistency - We should try to create a mindset of consistency by developing beliefs which support us in obtaining this result. In order to develop consistency, try to objectively identify your edges, defining the risk in each trade in advance, and accepting the risk to be able to exit a position when a defined loss level is realized.

Trading is a Probability Game - You can't be a perfectionist and expect to be a great trader. Your losses (that you hope will return to breakeven) will kill you.

In Too soon or getting In Too Late - These mistakes come from traders not having a well-defined plan of how they will enter the market. This positions the trader as a reactive trader instead of a proactive trader, which increases the level of emotion the trader will feel in reacting to market movements. A written plan helps make a trader more systematic and objective, and reduces the risk that emotions will cause the trader to deviate from his plan.

Not taking profits on winners and letting winners turn to losers - Again this is a function of not having a properly thought-out plan. Entries are easy but exits are hard. You must have a plan for how you will exit the market, both on your winners and your losers. Then your job as a trader becomes to execute your plan precisely.

Great traders don't place their own expectations on to the market's behavior - Poor traders expect the market to give them something. When conditions change, a smart trader will recognize that, and take what the market gives.

Does Your Forex Strategy Include The Fibonacci Two-Step?

Fibonacci can be a very valuable addition to the tools in your Forex strategy, even if you are a reasonably new trader. Experiment with the guidelines below and learn to do the Fibonacci two-step:

Fibonacci levels indicate more often than not how far price is going to go before it stalls and pulls back. It also provides a number of levels where price can pull back or retrace before moving on in the direction of the trend.

The 4 most common retracement levels are (figures rounded off) 1. 38%, 2. 50%, 3. 62%, and 4. 79%.

The two most common extension levels are 1.27% and 1.62%.

Using the Fibonacci tool that comes with most charting packages, simply drag the tool from the most recent swing high/low to the previous swing/high or low and take special note of the 50% retracement level.

In a nutshell, the Fibonacci Two-Step means you set an entry order to be pulled in if and when price touches the Fib50% retracement level, and you set your target at the Fib1.27% extension level.

However, for these trades to be high probability with minimal risk a couple quick calculations are necessary.

What is your stop value? 25-30 pips? If it’s more can your equity cover it if you lose the trade? For many traders 25-30 pips is a reasonable stop.

So before entering the trade, measure the distance between the Fib50% retracement level, your possible entry point, and the Fib79% retracement or even the 100% level. If it is more than 25-30 pips, pass on the trade. The risk is too great. If price pulls back further than the Fib50% level even all the way back to the last swing high/low, you will be in trouble.

However, if the Fib79% or 100% level are within 25-30 pips of your entry at Fib50%, you have a possible trade.

Now calculate how many pips from Fib50% to the extension at Fib127% - this will be your profit ratio. Supposing your stop is set at 25 pips, perhaps somewhere between the Fib79% retracement level and the swing point, and your target at the Fib127% extension is 36 pips, that’s a good risk/reward ratio! You are risking 25 pips to get 36.

It is often advisable to set your target 3 or 4 pips above the Fib127% level as sometimes price doesn’t quite make it before it pulls back.

Use this strategy in line with your other indicators and trade in the direction of the trend for minimal risk.

Why is this strategy so successful? Because it’s not too ambitious. Price will often pull back to the Fib50% level and no further. It will often go to the Fib127 and no further. So using these two levels puts one on middle ground with a higher chance of getting taken into the trade with the target successfully met.

Forex Strategy: How The MACD Indicator Can Save You Anxiety

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator can add a degree of certainty to your Forex strategy.

As with any indicator, it is too risky to enter trades on this signal alone. However, as we will see, used with caution on higher time frames, it can help confirm you are going in the right direction and that your trade is higher probability.

First, let’s take MACD apart and describe it’s component parts.

The default MACD on most charting packages sets 2 EMA’s (Exponential Moving Averages) at 26 and 12 days.

This is represented by a colored line (color varies according to charting package) which crosses a different colored 9 EMA often termed the trigger line.

When MACD (the 12/26 EMA) crosses above the trigger line (9 EMA) upward momentum is indicated and vice versa.

A center line, or zero line, often called the water line is also shown in the MACD indicator. When MACD is above the water line an upward trend is indicated, when it is below the water line, a downward trend is indicated.

MACD also includes a histogram, small vertical lines that appear above or below the zero line, not unlike mountains and valleys in appearance.

MACD is a lagging indicator which follows price action.

The histogram is an indicator of MACD. So watching the histogram can give you an early indication of where MACD is going. The height of the histogram can be a good momentum indicator.

How can you use MACD to your advantage?

If you want to be very cautious in your Forex strategy, going only for high probability trades, then pay attention to MACD on the 4 hour and 1 hour charts.

Some traders will only enter a trade when the 4 hour and 1 hour MACD’s are going in the same direction. This will mean a lot less trades but the ones you do take are likely to be profitable. (Agreement of the two MACD’s is used in conjunction with other indicators, not by itself.)

MACD on the 1 hour chart is particularly powerful. If you want to stay out of trouble and avoid trades you might later regret, NEVER trade against the direction of the 1 hour MACD. To do otherwise is not necessarily foolhardy if you know what you are doing.

But for the newer, less experienced trader, only trading long when MACD has crossed up, or short when MACD has crossed down on the hourly chart when your other favorite indicators line up, will make for a higher success rate with your Forex strategy. It will also save you much anxiety!

Trendline Backside Forex Strategy: Getting In At The Optimum Price

Knowing how to utilize the power of trendlines as part of your forex strategy can make a big difference to your profits. Getting in at the right level results in more pips which can accumulate steadily.

Two methods of drawing trendlines are:

1. The common sense method. By just running the eye over a candle chart, it is easy to identify a series of lower highs or higher lows. Drawing a trendline across the tops or the bottoms will indicate where price is likely to bounce in the future.

It is not necessary to be obsessive about the trendline having to touch exactly all the highs and lows. In some cases they may touch the bottom of some candle shadows, in other cases, they may touch the bodies of the candles.

2. The Tom DeMark method. Tom DeMark, a highly respected market analyst, suggests connecting the last high with the previous high in a downtrend and extending the line past current price action OR connecting the last low with the previous low in an uptrend and extending the line past current price action.

Highs are candles that have lower candles adjacent to them on the left and right and lows are candles that have higher candles adjacent to them on the right and left.

These trendlines can be regularly updated as new highs and lows are formed.

Many traders enter a trade on the break of a trendline as part of their forex strategy. That works for many.

However, there is a way to use trendlines to ensure an optimum entry point.

Often, not always, price will break a trendline and move away 10 or 20 pips. Then, it comes back to test the backside of that trendline. That’s where you enter the trade.

If the trendline break coincides with your other favorite indicators such as pivot points, Fibonacci calculations, set an entry order for price to take you in when it comes back to test that level.

That way you enter the trade at an optimum level and squeeze even more pips out of the move.

Of course, price may not come back to test the backside of the trendline so your order doesn’t get taken in and you miss the move. No problem. As a trader patience is an essential quality you develop as a part of your forex strategy. You simply wait for the next time!

Forex Strategy: How Do You Trade The Non-Farm Payroll Report?

In the development of your forex strategy do you wonder how you can trade the non-farm payroll report?

Seeing this is one of the most, if not the most, volatile announcement during the month (first Friday in every month) newer traders watch the huge movements and wonder how to make money from all that volatility.

Here’s an answer you may not fully appreciate until some explanation is offered. “How do I trade the non-farm payroll report?” The answer is: “By maintaining a neutral position!”

To put it another way, YOU DON’T!

The market is far too volatile at this time to expect a high probability trade. There may be some gamblers out there who relish the thought of ‘placing a bet’ to go long or short. But serious traders know better.

Actually, the professional traders I know all say the same thing: “Stand aside and wait for the market to calm down.”

This may take between 30 to 45 minutes in some cases and even then the direction of the market may be uncertain.

Some suggest you can trade volatile market movers such as the non-farm payroll report by waiting for the first leg of the move, up or down, then wait for price to pull back 10 or 15 pips, then enter a trade to catch the second leg of the move which often follows.

That’s one possibility but still very high risk. Personally I prefer to base my forex strategy on sound market assessment and carefully researched trades.

However, while many professional traders sit out the non-farm payroll report, that doesn’t mean they don’t trade afterwards. After the market has made a violent move in one direction you sometimes see price stalling and then give a clear signal that it’s momentum is exhausted.

This may be in the form of a candle pattern such as a hammer with a very large shadow which also happens to be on a key support or resistance level.

Now you can enter a trade with a small level of risk as you place your stop just above the high or low of the candle signal.

This advice applies to all fundamental announcements which are considered ‘market movers’. By developing a cautious forex strategy based on sound trading principles, you will enjoy this business and get the satisfaction of seeing your account equity steadily growing.

Making Money In Forex Trading Fact or Fiction?

Find out the real truth about making money in forex trading.

Recently theres been a surge of everyday, average investors choosing to invest the majority of their portfolio in forex trading. If you talk with those people, you'll find many feel making money in forex trading is much easier than using more traditional types of investing.

The process used for making money in forex trading has a different set of strategies, and plan that trading stocks, mutual funds or bonds. The forex market is a little more complicated to learn, but once you understand the forex market and currency exchanges the possibility of making money in forex is good.

Making Money in Forex Trading - The Advantages

There are advantages to the forex market not available when you invest in the stock market realm. First off, industry changes and changes in company profits dont affect the forex market. Bull and bear markets wont cause major fluctuations as in normal stock trading.

Another advantage is the fact forex trading is open twenty-four hours a day, six days a week. Its not like learning about a major industry event in the evening news and not being able to do anything until the market opens on Monday. You can make your trades anytime of the day.

Learning about making money in forex trading has never been easier. Many online brokerage sites offer free information and education about learning how to invest the forex market. You can also train in real-life" trading without using any money. Its the online version of paper-trading. Youll be able to fine-tune your market strategies and analysis before you actually risk any of your own money.

As with any form of investment there is the potential for loss. Setting your stop points and minimizing your loss potential is not at all difficult, once you understand the forex lingo, and how currencies are traded.

Making money in forex trading occurs by buying and selling once currency for another. The trading is done in pairs. Quotes are displayed in the same manner. The money you make is determined by the change in pips.

Simply put forex (foreign exchange) trades are made according to the value of one currency as compared to another. These values of currencies are constantly changing. Quotes on prices are quoted in pips (percentage in point). If a particular currency quote goes higher, it means that currency is stronger. If it goes lower it means the currency weakening.

Leap Right Into The forex Game with the Basics

"A day of worry is more exhausting than a week of work." -a forex trader
The forex, or foreign money exchange, is all about currency. Money from all over the globe is bought, sold and traded. On the forex, anyone can buy and transfer currency and could maybe come out ahead in the end. When dealing with the foreign currency exchange, it is conceivable to buy the currency of one state, sell it and make a gain. For instance, a broker might buy a Japanese yen when the yen to dollar ratio increases, hitherto trade the yens and buy invest in American dollars for a yield.
The forex and the stock market possess varied similarities, in that it involves buying and trading to make a gain, but there are some differences. Unlike the stock market, the forex has a much high liquidity. This means, much more money is shifting hands day-to-day. Another key distinction when comparing the forex to the stock market is that the forex has no place where it is exchanged and it never closes. The forex involved trading between banks and brokers all over the world and provides twenty-four hour admittance during the business week.
Other variation between the stock market and the forex is that forex transaction has much higher leverage that the stock market. When some person decides to put in in the forex, they can anticipate much higher yield when they are competent and recognize how it works. There can also be the possibility for bleeding much more money as well.
For those who are just getting started in the forex, myriad brokers supply the utility of exchange using the mini-forex system. This has a paltry minimum deposit, customarily $100. This makes it easier for those learning how to trade on the forex to suffer less of a fate of bleeding a lot of savings and to discover how the system goes.
There is a lot of jargon when dealing with the forex. Learning to exchange on the forex can be fairly daedalian for the apprentice trader. When anticipating at the names utilized in the forex, a symbol is composed of two parts. The first one that is used is one It is important to learn what currency symbols imply when mastering about the forex. There are many books and websites dedicated on teaching traders about using the forex.
For those using the forex, a stockbroker is normally a commendable idea. Brokers are professionals when it comes to trading on the forex and their familiarity is priceless, markedly to the new dealer. When it is time to find a broker, there are some factors to ruminate. One thing to scrutinize for when choosing a forex broker is to go with some person that offers low spreads. The spread is designed in pips, or the variation between the valuation at which currency can be purchased and the appraisal it can be sold at any set time. Because forex brokers do not charge a fee, they will make their money off of the spreads, or the difference. When picking a broker, look at this info and refer that with different brokers.
Furthermore, when looking at a forex broker, pay attention for one that is backed by a well known financial organization. forex bankers are generally attached with big banks or other types of financial institutions. If a broker is not with a big bank, keep searching. In addition, look for a broker that is registered with the Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) and that is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Making sure that the broker is properly registered and backed by a large bank or institution ensures that you are getting a reliable broker that is experienced in trading on the forex.
When looking for a broker, check to be certain that the broker has access to the latest research tools and data. It is important that brokers understand and have access to charts, graphs, news and data that are in real time. This will ensure that the broker is making wise decisions based on accurate forex forecasting. Also, look for a broker that can propose a extensive range of account options. They have to offer mini-accounts with a negligible minimum deposit as well as a standard account. This will allow anyone keen in the forex the possibility to barter at a level where they perceive most at ease

Forex Trading - The Basics

Is forex trading for you? Well, the fairest way to answer that is by explaining the basics of foreign exchange trading to you.
First things first, the Forex is a market on which the currency of one country is "compared" to the currency of another country in order to determine a value. This value is what you will be trading.
The forex, or foreign exchange market is open and availalbe for trading 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. This gives the currency trading markets a distinct advantage over all other financial markets available to investors.
Also, the size of the forex absolutely dwarfs all other financial markets combined. This massive size creates unique advantages over all other trading tools.
According to most forex brokers, all stop orders (with few exceptions) will be filled at their enetered price. In trading terms this means no slippage. I can't even begin to put a value on this feature.
Due to this quality you can have orders filled of up to $20 million of currency at the market price. Again, an almost unnatural feature when compared to other trading markets.
A more advanced feature is the ability to sell short with no regulations. Ok, technically you are never selling currency short, but I won't get into that in this article.
What this means is that, if at any time you believe the value of a currency is going to decrease, you will be able to take act on your hunch without delay.
Another one of a kind characteristic of the forex market is it's amazingly accurate technical analysis. Like all other financial trading tools, the forex market has all of its' "stocks charted". This is no big surprise, or advantage.
However, unlike other tools, all points on a chart in the forex are based on the bid price. So, Eddie, why does this matter to me? Because this means that the spread is not factored into the chart price. This leads to a much more accurate and readable chart.
In fact, the spread is constant on all forex currency pairs. Some have spreads as low as 2 pips and others as high as 10 or even more. However, they remain constatn with almost all forex brokers and forex banks. This is yet another reason to look at the forex markets.
In my incredibly humble opinion, there is no market that provides the opportunity and benefits like the foreign exchange. The forex has been traded by banks and financial institutions for decades. Now, you, as an individual can climb into the ring and take your shots.

200 EMA Forex Strategy – Easy For Beginners

A challenge facing many new traders when developing their forex strategy is the ability to identify the overall trend for intra-day trading.

Using the 200 EMA can help solve the problem.

The 200 EMA is a very popular indicator and for that reason alone is worth noting due to the psychological effect on the market place price can have when hovering around the 200 EMA.

To use this forex strategy, create charts on 3 time frames: the 4 hour, the 1 hour, the 15 minute.

Now plot a 200 EMA indicator on each chart and, as a suggestion, color it red, for easy visual impact.

Preferably tile the 3 windows containing your 3 charts into a vertical fashion so you can see the 3 time frames next to each other. It will squeeze up the information on the charts somewhat but for the purpose of this strategy that doesn’t matter.

Now scroll through the various currency pairs you like to trade. If you prefer to trade only pairs with a smaller pip spread, they amount to about 9. They are: EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/CHF; USD/JPY; EUR/JPY; USD/CAD; AUD/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/CHF

What you are looking for is any currency pair that bucks the 200 EMA on the 15 minute chart. So for example, look at the EUR/USD pair and note the position of price relative to the 200 EMA on the 3 time frames. If price is well above the 200 EMA on the 4 hour chart, well above the 200 EMA on the 1 hour chart, but BELOW the 200 EMA on the 15 minute chart, price is bucking the trend.

The overall trend is up, price has temporarily gone against the trend and is currently in a retracement.

Using the fundamental trading principle of “buy the dips in an uptrend”, “sell the rallies in a downtrend”, look for a suitable entry point. In the example give above you would look for an opportunity to buy the EUR/USD, perhaps watching for a candle signal that price has exhausted it’s downward momentum, bucking the 15 minute chart 200 EMA and will soon resume it’s upward momentum.

This is an easy exercise and it can be done once or twice a day, taking just a few minutes.

Once you see price bucking the 200 EMA on the 15 minute chart, whereas it is on the opposite side on the 4 hour and 1 hour charts, sit up and take note. Watch carefully and grab the opportunity to get in and make a few pips!

Michael A. Jones is a writer and webmaster with over 10 years experience who also trades the forex regularly. Visit this page for details of how he finally started to make consistent profits

Bold Insights on the Euro's Performance in the Forex Markets

" A smooth sea never made a skillful mariner!" - Quote by an Addicted forex Trader

The forex, also designated the foreign trade market is the largest and greatest liquid exchange market in the planet. Unlike the stock exchange, the forex does not suffer a specified trading location or termination period. Instead, over $2 trillion are traded and sold every day. The forex never closes and exchange takes place twenty-four hours a day along the business week.

There are currently six significant currency pairs that are utilized and traded each day on the forex. These six pairs explain for up to 90 percent of the selling bustle each and every day. These embrace the euro and the US dollar (EUR/USD), the Japanese yen and the US dollar (JPY/USD), the US dollar and the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), the Australian dollar and the US dollar (AUD/USD), the British pound and the US dollar (GBP/USD) and the US dollar and the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD).

Each of these currencies operates a bit differently in the forex and fluctuates a little on a regular basis. The Euro is extremely vital in the foreign exchange currency. It does not simply stand for one country, but a sum of twelve countries in Europe. The countries that are members of the European Union and identify the Euro as currency are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden. Out of the fifteen members of the European Union, just two do not respect the euro as the authorized currency. These are Denmark and the United Kingdom. Sweden recently began using the euro in 2005.

Currently the euro is comparative to the US dollar and is worth around 90 cents to the dollar. In 1999, all of the European countries locked the cost of their own currencies in reference to the euro. This implies that all of the currencies were valued round the same as the euro. These countries before long began using the euro as their money so that the currency could be utilized across the region and utilized immune from the demand for obtaining variant forms of currency. This change helped bloster the euro and become a more accepted form of currency.

The use of a unified currency across myriad countries has both advantages and disadvantages in connection to the forex. One of the notable advantage of the euro is that the barter rate is lowered, thereby making investment across environs easier. There are risks in the changes in the cost of the currency. This implies that companies see it risky to import or export beyond their currency domain and that yield could be lowered. Using a broad form of currency eliminates this worry. It creates a additional gamble free import and export room, which once relies thoroughly on intra-European exports.

Additional advantage of numerous countries using the euro is that it eliminates the demand for adjusting fees. When a individual or corporation has the requirement to exchange money, there is a fee desired. Many financial institutions levy assorted manner of percentage for adjustment and while it is a relative small amount, it adds up. Multiple changes add up all across Europe. Dropping these fees saves the economy in the long run.

When evaluating at the forex and the way the euro performs, it is crucially vital to recall that using one form of currency creates a deeper monetary market. This implies that the European markets are much more liquid than in the past. There The idea that it will create a deeper financial market implies it will act upon they way the consumers expend the currency all across the region. This will in turn, prompt to increased amounts of money that is played out on the stock market.

Now that the euro has become one of the biggest currencies in the planet, trading for it and with it will increase on the forex. The forex is customarily bedevilled by the US dollar, but the euro is forcing a hefty stand. The use of this currency all about the European countries is delightful in numerous ways and it is thoroughly established all over the globe. Both businesses and individuals gain from the use of the euro in these countries ,free of the fret of having to switch the money as much as in the past.

Is The Hype About FOREX Trading Real?

Earning big money is what FOREX trading is all about. Exchange rates change constantly on the FOREX markets and many investors have found that this volatility can lead to some very significant profits. FOREX is an abbreviation for the foreign exchange market, which is based around buying different currencies when the exchange rate is down and then selling them when it is up. You will often se this abbreviated to the even shorter moniker "FX". Trades on the FOREX market are done through a financial institution or broker; many of these same institutions also offer other forms of investing such as stock and bonds.

When you start investing in FOREX you are actually sending your money to be used in other countries. This helps stabilize hedge funds and various other trading markets in the country of the currency you purchase. When you trade in this market your money can really get around in a hurry, your money could end up in several different countries in just a few days. If you have a managed account your broker will determine the daily balances and changes. When you read through your account statement you will see that each countries currency is designated with a three-letter abbreviation.

Here are some of the more common currencies you will see: JPY is the Japanese Yen, USD is the United States Dollar and GBP is the British Sterling Pound. When you look at the individual transactions on your statement you will see entries like JPY/USD. In this case it means that your broker took your Japanese Yen and traded them for US Dollars. It is common to see many transactions trading from one currency to another and even back to the original currency in a fairly short period of time, this is done to try to capitalize on the volatility of the currency exchange.

If you are using a respected investment management firm then you can feel secure that your FOREX investments are in safe and knowledgeable hands. When you are looking for a managed account then you really want to find a company that has years of experience in the markets. I would not suggest that you start out with a new company because you are risking that their skill level may be lacking. Be very careful when choosing the company to deal with, there are many new companies available online. Many of these companies are in foreign countries and you will not have any reliable method to check their qualifications or legitimacy. Read your trading agreement very carefully and know as much as possible about the company you choose to avoid being scammed.

The minimum investing levels vary greatly from one financial institution to another. Some companies will allow you to open a mini-account for as little as $250 where as others will require much larger initial investments such as $10,000. This is determined by the brokerage company, be careful of brokers that require very small initial investments. There are scam artist out there looking to rip off honest investors.

Getting Started With FOREX - Selecting A Broker

Leap Right Into The forex Game with the Basics

"A day of worry is more exhausting than a week of work." -a forex trader

The forex, or foreign money exchange, is all about currency. Money from all over the globe is bought, sold and traded. On the forex, anyone can buy and transfer currency and could maybe come out ahead in the end. When dealing with the foreign currency exchange, it is conceivable to buy the currency of one state, sell it and make a gain. For instance, a broker might buy a Japanese yen when the yen to dollar ratio increases, hitherto trade the yens and buy invest in American dollars for a yield.

The forex and the stock market possess varied similarities, in that it involves buying and trading to make a gain, but there are some differences. Unlike the stock market, the forex has a much high liquidity. This means, much more money is shifting hands day-to-day. Another key distinction when comparing the forex to the stock market is that the forex has no place where it is exchanged and it never closes. The forex involved trading between banks and brokers all over the world and provides twenty-four hour admittance during the business week.

Other variation between the stock market and the forex is that forex transaction has much higher leverage that the stock market. When some person decides to put in in the forex, they can anticipate much higher yield when they are competent and recognize how it works. There can also be the possibility for bleeding much more money as well.

For those who are just getting started in the forex, myriad brokers supply the utility of exchange using the mini-forex system. This has a paltry minimum deposit, customarily $100. This makes it easier for those learning how to trade on the forex to suffer less of a fate of bleeding a lot of savings and to discover how the system goes.

There is a lot of jargon when dealing with the forex. Learning to exchange on the forex can be fairly daedalian for the apprentice trader. When anticipating at the names utilized in the forex, a symbol is composed of two parts. The first one that is used is one It is important to learn what currency symbols imply when mastering about the forex. There are many books and websites dedicated on teaching traders about using the forex.

For those using the forex, a stockbroker is normally a commendable idea. Brokers are professionals when it comes to trading on the forex and their familiarity is priceless, markedly to the new dealer. When it is time to find a broker, there are some factors to ruminate. One thing to scrutinize for when choosing a forex broker is to go with some person that offers low spreads. The spread is designed in pips, or the variation between the valuation at which currency can be purchased and the appraisal it can be sold at any set time. Because forex brokers do not charge a fee, they will make their money off of the spreads, or the difference. When picking a broker, look at this info and refer that with different brokers.

Furthermore, when looking at a forex broker, pay attention for one that is backed by a well known financial organization. forex bankers are generally attached with big banks or other types of financial institutions. If a broker is not with a big bank, keep searching. In addition, look for a broker that is registered with the Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) and that is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Making sure that the broker is properly registered and backed by a large bank or institution ensures that you are getting a reliable broker that is experienced in trading on the forex.

When looking for a broker, check to be certain that the broker has access to the latest research tools and data. It is important that brokers understand and have access to charts, graphs, news and data that are in real time. This will ensure that the broker is making wise decisions based on accurate forex forecasting. Also, look for a broker that can propose a extensive range of account options. They have to offer mini-accounts with a negligible minimum deposit as well as a standard account. This will allow anyone keen in the forex the possibility to barter at a level where they perceive most at ease.

The information you just read was pulled from many different resources. You should continue searching for information until you believe you have a firm grasp of the subject. I do want to thank you for visiting and good luck.

Forex Trading - The Basics

Is forex trading for you? Well, the fairest way to answer that is by explaining the basics of foreign exchange trading to you.

First things first, the Forex is a market on which the currency of one country is "compared" to the currency of another country in order to determine a value. This value is what you will be trading.

The forex, or foreign exchange market is open and availalbe for trading 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. This gives the currency trading markets a distinct advantage over all other financial markets available to investors.

Also, the size of the forex absolutely dwarfs all other financial markets combined. This massive size creates unique advantages over all other trading tools.

According to most forex brokers, all stop orders (with few exceptions) will be filled at their enetered price. In trading terms this means no slippage. I can't even begin to put a value on this feature.

Due to this quality you can have orders filled of up to $20 million of currency at the market price. Again, an almost unnatural feature when compared to other trading markets.

A more advanced feature is the ability to sell short with no regulations. Ok, technically you are never selling currency short, but I won't get into that in this article.

What this means is that, if at any time you believe the value of a currency is going to decrease, you will be able to take act on your hunch without delay.

Another one of a kind characteristic of the forex market is it's amazingly accurate technical analysis. Like all other financial trading tools, the forex market has all of its' "stocks charted". This is no big surprise, or advantage.

However, unlike other tools, all points on a chart in the forex are based on the bid price. So, Eddie, why does this matter to me? Because this means that the spread is not factored into the chart price. This leads to a much more accurate and readable chart.

In fact, the spread is constant on all forex currency pairs. Some have spreads as low as 2 pips and others as high as 10 or even more. However, they remain constatn with almost all forex brokers and forex banks. This is yet another reason to look at the forex markets.

In my incredibly humble opinion, there is no market that provides the opportunity and benefits like the foreign exchange. The forex has been traded by banks and financial institutions for decades. Now, you, as an individual can climb into the ring and take your shots.

Ok, hopefully this gives you some sort of direction of whether or not forex trading is right for you.

Stay tuned, there will be much more info to come in the near future

Is The Hype About FOREX Trading Real?

Earning big money is what FOREX trading is all about. Exchange rates change constantly on the FOREX markets and many investors have found that this volatility can lead to some very significant profits. FOREX is an abbreviation for the foreign exchange market, which is based around buying different currencies when the exchange rate is down and then selling them when it is up. You will often se this abbreviated to the even shorter moniker "FX". Trades on the FOREX market are done through a financial institution or broker; many of these same institutions also offer other forms of investing such as stock and bonds.

When you start investing in FOREX you are actually sending your money to be used in other countries. This helps stabilize hedge funds and various other trading markets in the country of the currency you purchase. When you trade in this market your money can really get around in a hurry, your money could end up in several different countries in just a few days. If you have a managed account your broker will determine the daily balances and changes. When you read through your account statement you will see that each countries currency is designated with a three-letter abbreviation.

Here are some of the more common currencies you will see: JPY is the Japanese Yen, USD is the United States Dollar and GBP is the British Sterling Pound. When you look at the individual transactions on your statement you will see entries like JPY/USD. In this case it means that your broker took your Japanese Yen and traded them for US Dollars. It is common to see many transactions trading from one currency to another and even back to the original currency in a fairly short period of time, this is done to try to capitalize on the volatility of the currency exchange.

If you are using a respected investment management firm then you can feel secure that your FOREX investments are in safe and knowledgeable hands. When you are looking for a managed account then you really want to find a company that has years of experience in the markets. I would not suggest that you start out with a new company because you are risking that their skill level may be lacking. Be very careful when choosing the company to deal with, there are many new companies available online. Many of these companies are in foreign countries and you will not have any reliable method to check their qualifications or legitimacy. Read your trading agreement very carefully and know as much as possible about the company you choose to avoid being scammed.

The minimum investing levels vary greatly from one financial institution to another. Some companies will allow you to open a mini-account for as little as $250 where as others will require much larger initial investments such as $10,000. This is determined by the brokerage company, be careful of brokers that require very small initial investments. There are scam artist out there looking to rip off honest investors.

Do you research and be sure of the company before you sign any agreements or provide them with any money.

The Size Of The Forex Market

Most of the experienced traders around the world consider the Forex market as the best and most profitable of the capital markets. During many years forex trading had been the great and exclusive domain of major banks, very large financial institutions and the countries central banks; a good example of such a bank would be the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. But over the last few years, thanks to the internet era, the market has been opened to anyone willing to learn the right techniques in forex trading and with the intentions of making substantial profits as the above mentioned institutions, that annually and consistently make pretty high profits from trading in the Foreign Exchange market.

The foreign exchange market (FOREX) will exist wherever one currency is being traded for another. This market, also known as “currency market”, is by far the largest market in the world in terms of all the cash value traded per day, this trading includes all that is being performed between large commercial banks, central banks, currency speculators, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. The trades taking place in the forex markets across the globe it’s known to exceed on average $1.9 trillion/day. Retail traders, this is, small speculators are only a small part of this market, but this doesn’t mean they can’t grab huge profits if they have learn the right way to trade the Forex. These individual traders participate in the market through broker firms.

According to many experts, the foreign exchange market will have doubled in size in just three years, this thanks to increased participation by fund managers and pension funds. A financial services research firm said it expected the total global average daily volumes on the forex market to exceed $3,000bn next year (2007). Forex volumes, which rose from $1,770bn in 2004 to $2,000bn last year, were set to rise to $2,600bn this year and $3,600bn next year.

With these numbers you can easily realize why they say that the Forex market is a huge market that offers great opportunities for traders of all sizes.