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How to Read Forex Quotes

Saturday, November 18, 2006

vlvThere are many technical terms associated with foreign exchange trading. These terms are very important to the Forex trading and the information is also crucial for every trader. Two such import terms are quotation and spread. Quotation deals with the ask price of any cash commodity at a certain period of time. The word quote is sued in almost all kinds of businesses and stands for an approximate market price. The quotation is always used only for information purposes. Most foreign currencies are given a quotation in pairs. The Forex trading works only with currency pairs like the USD/EUR. Now the USD is the base pair while the EUR is the quote currency. The world’s financial wholesale markets quote a currency using 5 different yet important numbers. The last number is known as the pip.

Forex quotes come with two kinds of prices the bid price and the ask price. The quotations for both the prices are sent in real time and as a result the Forex market is able to ensure that all traders will receive a fair price while doing a transaction. Like all trading markets, the Forex market also has an immediate cost attached to establishing a position. Let’s take an example. If the USD/AUS bid is at 131.40 and the ask price is at 131.45 then there is a five-pip spread. This spread will define the traders’ cost. To a layman, a Forex quote might sound Spanish but in reality it is very simple. There are two very important things to remember and they are: The base currency, which is the first currency and the value is always 1. The most important currency or the heart of the Forex market is the US Dollar. In a quotation-involving USD as one of the currency, it will always be referred to as the base currency. If there is a quote for a currency pair of USD/JPY and if the value is 160.25, then it means that $1 is equal to 160.25 Yen.

If there is a currency pair, which has the USD as the base and if there is a rise in the currency quote then it would translate into appreciation for Dollar and depreciation for the secondary currency. Like the last example if the quote for the USD/JPY pair increased to 169.35 then that means that the Dollar is stronger. It also means that $1 can now buy 169.35 Yen. There are only three exceptions to this rule and they are the Australian Dollar, the Euro and the British Pound. If the dollar is paired with the Pound, and the quote for GBP/USD shows 2.3647 then it means that 1 pound is equal to $2.3647. In such pairs the US Dollars is not the base currency and a rising quote would mean that the US Dollar is depreciating. The third type of currency pair is the cross currency. This combination doesn’t use the US Dollar like AUD/JPY. In such a scenario, Australian Dollar would be the base currency. Probably now this might sound simpler to everyone.

European Single Currency

This time we’ll talk about European Union (EU) that involves a market with a single currency, a single Central Bank and a single monetary policy. There’ll be discussed European single currency, Monetary, and Fiscal policies, and effect of EU innovations on European countries from the economic perspective. The current situation in Europe and that affecting the members of the EU is one of unbalance. The Maastricht Treaty envisaged the creation of a European Central Bank, ECB. It also laid down set criteria for countries to fulfil before they could join the single currency. There were four key points that the main players of the treaty stressed were the vital characteristics that potential candidates must to be considered for entry.

Price stability in effect this means controlled inflation. The perspective country must for at least one year have had an inflation rate no more than 1.5% above the average of a most the three best performers already existing within the Union. This is because a union such as the EU would require its members to be of similar economic importance. If a candidates inflation rate exceeded the 1.5% precedent set it would harm the way that the EU functions by putting pressure on the top performers to lower their rates to create an equal set rate. Fiscal Convergence, or more simply a budget deficit. The treaty requires that the deficit should not be more than 3% of the GDP [Gross Domestic Product]. The accumulative debts should not exceed more than 60% of the GDP. Another demand is that there is stability within the currency for two years in the normal ERM bands without having devalued. This is as well as the specification that there are requests that the Interest Rate for a year long term shall not have exceeded by more than 2% of the average of at most the best inflation performer that already exists in the EU. The second phase is to start the Monetary union. On the 1st of January 199, states will start to use the Euro as an acceptable currency in the eleven states. National currencies will continue to circulate for a number of years. The ECB will take control over the monetary policy. National currencies will have parity against the Euro and not for instance against the French Franc or the German Deutschmarks.

The National Central Banks can no longer conduct their own Monetary policy. They will merely act as agents of the ECB. The exchange rate risk will be eliminated and there will be a single monetary policy throughout the European Union. The third stage will see the emergence of Euro bank notes and coins. These will circulate along with national currencies. In January 2002, the Euro notes and coins will b withdrawn from circulation as the Euro notes and coins start to circulate more widely. There will be co-ordinated switch to the Euro for transaction with the public. It is expected that the final changeover will be completed by 1st July 2002 when all national notes and coins will be withdrawn. There are several key points that the introduction of the Euro will bring. These factors will eliminate additional costs associated with national currencies, enhance price stability and transparency. It will also simplify travel across Europe, with prices stability and transparency. It will also simplify travel across Europe, with prices becoming fixed and travel more frequent. Another advantage would be the revenue saved in the transferring of one currency to the other, such a saving to the average person could mean a better holiday. If the single currency is embraced by Britain it may stimulate employment and will be able to compete with the dollar which has not been possible with regard to the national currencies of European countries, this would lead to both low inflation, and a stable monetary economy. However there would be some disadvantages of Britain scrapping the pound in favour of the European single currency. Some of these problems would be that the member states will lose their monetary policy freedom; governments will affect the employee’s contract in money terms. To even change all the machines, i.e. Cash machines, tills in be a long and costly process, not only will these be affected but so will all the business who have to change their computer systems. In a counter argument the structural weakness of the Euro, greatly effecting Britain decision. In my conclusion I have highlighted five specific Tests for Britain’s Entry to Europe.

Would entry be good for jobs, Investment will continue to come to Britain. Financial Services Industry will continue to dominate. Whether Business Cycles are compatible, whether there is sufficient flexibility to deal with problems. None of these factors have been met yet and it is unlikely that they will be clearly met. It has been argued that the European Central Bank’s decisions will have an impact on Britain.

Close attention will be required on the interest rates. Currently the interest rates will decline. There are several factors that may work against Britain. There could be a high degree of sterling volatility against the Euro. London may lose its position as the international financial centre. The government and central business will study the success of the Euro and see when the time is right.

Although there’re many facts about the pros and cons of joining the European single currency, ultimately it will be up to the British public in a referendum. It will be interesting to see how the media uses its influence as to whether the public will favour entry into Euro Land.

Overtrading: A Common Mistake

Friday, November 17, 2006

Over trading is one of the biggest causes why traders never make it in the financial markets. With a click of a button, a trader can place a trade anytime he wants. It takes tremendous discipline to hold yourself back from over trading. There are many reasons why one may choose to over trade.

1. Traders without a plan

Traders without a plan are my favorite type of traders because they will always lose. Without a plan, how would one know when to take a trade and when not to? Having a trading plan is a necessity. I can not trade if I do not have a plan for the day. I feel lost without one.

2. Revenge trading

Many new traders become tilted after a loss or a string of losses. This causes them to revenge trade just to break even. This often leads to reckless trading forcing a trade when opportunity is low.

3. Chasing the markets

Alot of new traders feel more pain when they have missed a move than an actual loss. This is why new traders love to chase the markets. If price has moved away from your projected entry point, let it go. There are plenty of more opportunities. Chasing is one of the worst habits a trader can have. Not only does it offer you low rewards, it also gives you a horrible entry and alters your stop loss placement. Always think about the risk before the profits.

When you have a plan to follow, it is easy to filter out bad trades from good one. This keeps you discipline and selective in your trades. I personally do not like trading more than 5 round trips a day. Patience is a virtue. There are always good high probability trading opportunities everyday. Just sit tight and don't jump the gun.

One way to control a loss is by reducing your size. The problem with gamblers is that they will often double up their stake so they can get even quicker. This usually leads to a greater loss and devastation. Having the strength to grind your way back from a loss is important in trading. Whenever I am having a losing streak, I will trade small and gradually recover. This also gives me the confidence I need after a string of losses.

Choosing A Forex Trading System – Part 3

OK, in our last installment I showed you how a sample of a Forex trading system with a high percentage of winning trades could still be a losing system overall.

The whole point of the exercise was to get you to take a closer look at the performance results of trading systems that you are interested in pursuing. Now that you know that it is possible to lose money trading a system with over 90% winners, you’ll be able to look at the next advertisement for a Forex trading system much more objectively.

Let’s take another look at our example:

Trading System A Performance

Number of trades = 1000
% of Winning trades = 92%
% of Losing trades = 8%
Average Winning trade = $180
Average Losing Trade = -$2100

A few quick calculations tells us that this trading system had Total Net Profit of -$2,400

The Total Net Profit is an important factor in any trading system although it doesn’t tell the full story.

Here’s how the Total Net Profit is calculated:

Total Net Profit = Gross Profit – Gross Loss

In our example above these figures would be:

$165,600 – $168,000 = -$2,400

As stated above the Total Net Profit for this trading system is negative. This is important to note. As you can see, if the only information you originally had access to was the percentage of winning trades you would have started to trade a losing trading system. Now with a little more information such as the Total Net Profit we are clearly able to see that all the glitters is not gold.

Please note that it is unlikely that anyone would be openly advertising the fact that even though their trading system has a high percentage of winning trades that it is a losing system.

In the next part of our series we’re going to take the performance data we currently have at our disposal and generate a very important number to know in evaluating any trading system.

5 Kick-Arse Tactics To Seize Favorable Probabilities at Forex

Thursday, November 16, 2006

As you ponder how to balance your forex portfolio, it is important to map out sure-fire strategies beforehand.

With your plan, you optimize your reward with respect to the expected risk, and tweak probabilities to your favor. Forex strategies must be disciplined and limit risk; simultaneously, it positions you at the most favorable advantage in the market.

A beginner’s strategy is the fundamental Moving Away Average, which is draws predictions from technical study over 12 periods, with each period 15 minutes in length. Trading decisions based on the MAA technique considers historical data to arrive at relatively safe predictions.

We use a simple algorithm for MAA. When currency price crosses above the twelfth period, simply move away it is a signal to stop and reverse. In this way a long position will be liquidated and a short position will be established, both using market orders. This system keeps trades constantly active in the market, with either a short position or a long position after the first signal. Risk is minimized.

Intermediate level strategy calls for analysis of support and resistance levels. The market likes to trade above support levels and trade below resistance levels. If either a support or a resistance level is broken, then the market follows through in the direction given. These breakpoints can be determined by analysis of the chart and assessment of where the chart has encountered unbroken support or resistance in times past. Identify these critical points and you can ascertain periods when you plan to open or close a position.

An advanced tactic that many consider exotic is the balloon strategy. The Balloon is an option that balloons, or increases in size when triggers are breached. Take the case of an investor who predicts that the dollar will gain strength against the Euro in the near future and is currently trading at one hundred, the investor will see one hundred ten as having strong resistance, but he also believes it will be broken.

Now, rather than buying straight US dollars at one hundred for the next six months the investor will purchase at “at the money” balloon call with a One Hundred Ten trigger and multiple of two. The investor then acquires a One Hundred Ten call in USD110mm. However if the dollar and Euro ever trade at or above one hundred ten, the 110 call will double to USD 20mm.

A day trader at heart? The Double Bottom is definitely for you. Significant to the short term trader, the double bottoms indicate a possible major change in currency sentiment and indicates a shifting trend. The pattern is used on all times frames, and many compelling intraday and long term bull markets are identified from this setup.

Analysts recognize that double bottoms quickly reflect strong support levels. When prices fail to break support in the down trending markets on more than one occasion we see powerful changes of trend. These reversal signals are revealing. The most common portal where a trader will open on a double bottom trade is upon a maneuver through the high of the two troughs. This high embodies secondary resistance, and when penetrated confirms a price reversal. From this vantage point, stops are placed around the lows of the patterns because a move below lows negates the pattern premise. Easy isn’t it?

To round of your arsenal of forex implements, arm yourself with the ichimoku chart. These charts consist of following indicators, which identify support and resistance levels and create trading beacons in a manner that is akin to moving averages. A contrast however between both is that the Ichimoku chart lines swing forward in time, creating vast swathes of support and resistance zones while decreasing the risk of trading false breakouts. They are arrived at with data on trend existence, direction, support and resistance.

New Frontiers in FOREX Market Analysis

This type of article is one of the most fun for me to write because it's really just a romp through the imagination. Since the 1990's, I have made a hobby out of exploring new and varied ideas for analyzing the markets, and this is a great opportunity to dust off some of my old notes, publish some of those ideas and perhaps get some feedback on them. I'm also looking forward to using some of the following concepts in my ongoing research work on FOREX price behavior. So put on your "what if..." hats and let's get started!

Market Models - Old & New

Most traders are familiar with the two basic schools of market analysis that we call Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis. In the 1970's, members of the academic community proposed a new model of the market known as the "Efficient Market Hypothesis". This is more commonly known as the "Random Walk Theory" and basically said that the first two schools of thought were both wasting their time. In response to the Random Walk Model, other academics put forth an even newer theory of how markets work called "Behavioral Finance". These are all examples of comprehensive explanations of what factors drive market prices. Here's a brief summary of market models, some of which are only in their infancy:

Fundamental: Market prices are driven by tangible events and conditions in the real world, such as earnings, sales, management, natural disasters, weather, economic conditions, geopolitical tensions and so forth.

Technical: Market prices are driven by what prices have done in the past. As traders observe these past and present price movements, their expectations about future prices lead to feelings of greed and fear which in turn create buying and selling pressures.

Random Walk: Current market prices are efficient reflections of all known fundamental and technical information, so we can discern nothing about future price movements. The factors that cause future price movement will be so varied that such movements can only be random in nature.

Behavioral Finance: Prices are driven by human psychology which is not always rational. Traders may base expectations about price movements, risk and reward on erroneous reasoning, thus causing prices to behave in non-random ways. Bubbles and crashes are classic examples of this.

Chaos Theory: Market prices are part of a non-linear dynamic system in which outputs are re-introduced back into the system as inputs, causing complex behavioral loops and very sensitive dependence on slight variations in conditions.

Fractal Geometry: Price patterns are recursively nested, meaning that a large pattern may be composed of several smaller similar or even identical patterns and so on through all time scales. Elliot Wave Theory is a classic example of this idea.

Scott's Emergent Property Model: I've discussed this one in more detail in other articles, but the idea is basically that identifiable properties of price behavior emerge from the combination of unique individual trading styles of the current market participants. An analogy would be how a person's personality emerges from the combination of individual neurons in their brain. This price behavior changes gradually over time in an evolutionary way in the same way that the behavior of an organism changes over time due to both internal changes in its makeup and external pressures from its environment.

My apologies if I have neglected or grossly mis-represented any of the various ways of explaining what makes the market tick.

Finding the Best Broker for Forex Trading

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

When we talk of any money transactions like those pertaining to the stock exchange, one hears a lot about brokers. FOREX traders are known to use brokers to carry out their transactions for them. So how would one define a broker? In the true sense of the word, a broker is a person or a company that a prospective investor trusts to buy and sell as per his decisions. He then pays the broker a commission which is how the brokers earn their money. A fund for margin trading necessitates the FOREX broker to be connected with big financial institution like banks. As protection against fraud and abusive trade practices a broker should be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant or FCM with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or CFTC.

An account would need to be set up with a FOREX broker before trading FOREX. There are a lot of brokers available on the Internet and one need to go through all that they are offering as part of their services before making an informed decision and ensure that you are apprised of the fees and other charges involved. As with all businesses the best way to advertise is the kind that goes by word of mouth and this applies to FOREX trading as well. Get information from friends and associates who have been dealing with brokers and find out the pitfalls in any that you need to be aware of and if they had any problems with their particular broker.

Everyone who has something to sell will have excellent pre-sales services and these may differ from the actual service they provide once you are registered with them. Look out for this aspect especially if you are looking at online FOREX brokers. Brokers need to be quick with buying and selling and ideally an online broker should ensure automatic execution with clearly stated policies on slippage and what percentage of slippage to expect in normal and fast moving markets. You would need to know what spread the broker is talking about, whether it is fixed or variable as per type of account, do mini accounts attract wider spreads and the charges for this, if any. More profit is accrued by the trader for smaller spreads but it may lead to a trade off between service and spread so go into the nitty gritty of the deal before signing up with any broker.

It is essential to understand the broker's margin terms before you take on a contract with any broker as the life blood of the FOREX trading is these margin accounts. You would need information on things like the calculation of margins, requirements of the margin, whether the margin changes are based on the currency that is being traded and whether the broker has different margins for different accounts like mini accounts and standard accounts.

Fast moving markets need that you have reliability and an ability to perform and since trading software is very essential for online FOREX traders, see that you pan the options available, maybe try a demo or two and then make your decision. Ideally the software should have auto trading, trailing stops and chart trading as some of its special features. They may be charged extra so check what you need and go through the charges with the broker as well. Minimum account balances, interest account balances, currency trading and if non-standard sized lots are traded as well as clients' funds insurance and to what extent are some things for which the broker would have certain policies and one must get all the information on them.

Two Forex Technical Indicators That Will Help The Trader

The objective of every forex trader is to become a profitable trader. But achieving this goal is not always an easy task, so it’s vital that you learn how to use as many of the technical indicators as you can. These indicators are very useful parameters that will tell you with a pretty high probability what the forex markets are more likely to do in their apparently disordered behavior.

MACD and RSI are two of these indicators; but what’s the meaning of these letters? Here is the answer:

Moving Average Convergence Divergence: MACD is a more detailed method of using moving averages to find trading signals. This indicator was developed by Gerald Appel, the MACD plots the difference between a 26-day exponential moving average and a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day moving average is generally used as a trigger line, this means that when the MACD crosses below this trigger it is a bearish signal (time to sell) and when it crosses above it, it's a bullish signal (time to buy).

This indicator will help the trader using MACD studies to have an early signal of what the market will do next. When the MACD turns positive and makes higher lows while prices are still tanking, this is usually a strong buy signal. Conversely, when the MACD makes lower highs while prices are making new highs, this could be a strong bearish divergence and a sell signal.

The other indicator, RSI, stands for Relative Strength Index. The RSI indicator measures the markets activity as to whether it is over bought or over sold. It gives a trader an indication of which way the Market is moving at the moment. It is important to note, that this is a leading indicator and thus allows one to see what the market is about to do next and then act accordingly in order to have gains. The higher the RSI number, the more over bought it is and conversely the lower the RSI number, the more over sold it is. It is a great leading indicator for the micro and macro reversals in the forex market.

Trading Is a Mind Game

Some of the greatest philosophers, priests, scientists and sportsman have said that winning is not an art, it all in the mind! So if you are planning to invest in Forex trading then you need to be mentally prepared. It is one of the best mind games that you will ever get to play. The first thing to do is change your mindset. Instead of thinking like any other normal person, you need to start thinking like a speculator, like a Forex trader. There many examples of Forex traders with experience and capability waste their career in the most unimaginable manner. This happens when they waste most of their time trying to perfect their knowledge of analyzing and reading Forex trading charts etc. As a result 95% of the traders have lost in the long run.

Anyone with an average intelligence can understand how the Forex trading market works although it might take a few years of following the market. But that’s about it! It doesn’t take a great IQ or knowledge to beat the odds and earn a profit in a Forex trading. The most important thing is the decision that you make. The decision making process maybe long and there might be some planning behind it but sometimes traders seem to take too long to take a decision and often that ends up being a wrong decision. This is one of the most important things behind success or failure. Some traders make quick decisions but are not able to stick by them or do a follow up and as a result they end up being on the losing side.

The reason why people avoid making a decision is because it’s painful and traders often have a ready assumption that their decision might not be the right one. So basically, the Forex trading market is playing with their mind. But they are not able to understand that if they can have some confidence in what they are doing, they will be able to sustain the pressure. There are many traders who shy away from making even short-term decisions. The pain being talked about has nothing to do with actual losses. It is from the fact that the traders are speculating already about future losses and feeling helpless that they don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow. At the end of the day everything depends on the trader’s ability to take a decision in spite of knowing that there is no guarantee to the Forex markets movement and taking a right decision. The Forex market is volatile and ups and downs are going to be there always. This is one fact every trader needs to live with. Keeping in mind the volatility, the Forex trader has to keep cool and be disciplined. It is like mentally preparing yourself in advance for what lays ahead so that you will not be caught off guard. The same mind game that most generals’ use in a war is what Forex trading offers.

Beginning Education In Forex Trading – Change Your Portfolio, Your Profits and Your Life

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Are you aware that by beginning education in forex trading you could significantly boost your investment income….and reduce the time and the fees you’re now sacrificing for other investment methods? You may be thinking, "Why Forex instead of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or real estate?" There’s several benefits to Forex trading. Beginning education in forex trading could be the “turning point” of your financial future.

For years only the "big boys" i.e. large banks, people with millions to invest, and large companies with operations in more than one nation were the only ones to reap the rewards of Forex trading. All that has changed. Now individuals like you and I can easily use forex trading as a regular means for investment profits. Online Forex trading sites are readily available to the small investor. Some will even allow you to open as account with as little as $250.00. Most, if not all, of these sites have beginning education in forex trading available free of charge.

Beginning Education In Forex Trading- The Basics

Trading currencies is not affected by changing bull or bear markets. The trading occurs in pairs. An example would be trading US dollars to the Euro.

Simply put forex (foreign exchange) trades are made based upon the value of one currency as compared to another. The values of currencies are constantly changing. Quotes on prices are quoted in pips (percentage in point). If a particular currency quote goes higher, it means that currency is stronger. If it goes lower it means the currency weakening.

To place a forex trade means you’re buying one currency and selling another. Basic factors used to determine how and when to place trades are relative interest rates, economic stability, political stability, and the trade status of the country. Eighty percent of forex trade on a daily basis involves nine major currencies: the U.S. dollar, Euro, yen, Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar.

Paper trading is a good method to use when beginning education in forex trading. It gives you the ability to see in real-time the results of your chosen trades without affecting your financial stability. Most online sites allow you to “practice trade” before you begin investing real money.

Forex trading offers more benefits than any other investment market. Forex trading outweighs traditional investing in crucial areas. The first is the ability for timely trading. If you’re trading stocks, it must be done in an eight hour day, five day a week schedule. Forex trades six days a week, 24 hours a day. Forex trading allows you to trade on your schedule. You’re able to minimize the potentials for loss when occurrences dictate…not when the market opens.

Lower transaction costs are another primary benefit of trading forex. With stocks broker fees, and/or commissions per transaction must be deducted from profits. In the forex market online forex site make their money between the bid price and the asking price. Thus you’re able to invest as much or as little as you want without fluctuations in your profits.

Specific industry moves have little effect, if any on forex trading. Bull or bear markets don’t have the effect as with trading stocks.

In summary, trading forex is quite different than other investment vehicles. Initially it may take you more time to grasp the overall specifics and develop strong analysis techniques. The time spent initially can bring you a lifetime of rewards. Investigate beginning education in forex trading today.

Automated Trading Orders in Forex Trading

Monday, November 13, 2006

Practical trading involves lots of simulations and automated trade orders using the power of computer. Charting, graph plotting, and automated trade orders; all these are used to enlighten your routine trading work and it spares you more time in studying the market.

Some of the well known trading orders are zero stops, stop order, limit orders, good till cancelled (GTC), as well as market on close order. These orders are used along with different trade strategies in different trading market. In Forex trading, limit orders and stop loss orders are the two auto-trade order used.

Limit orders:

As a trader, you can place these orders when you wish to buy/sell the currency at a better price compare to current market. Limit orders are often used to take win automatically when the price reaches certain level. For example, current EUR/USD is at 1.2693 and your predetermined limit order is to sell all at 1.2700. The order will auto-execute whenever the price reach 1.2700.

It is important to learn that limit orders can be only placed at least the minimum distance from the current market price. Also, such order can be cancelled or modified anytime by you as long as the limit order price tag is set further than the minimum distance allowed.

Stop orders:

Stop orders, or sometimes known as stop loss orders, are automated orders used to restrict and limit the losses of an open position. It can also be used to lock on a profit in your trade when the market is going in your favored direction.

Stop orders work similarly to limit sell orders, it predetermine what is the lowest price to sell in certain deals. For example, EUR/USD 1.2693 with stop order at 1.2685, the system will sell your portion of USD if the price touches the 1.2685 level. The price 1.2685 is guaranteed on such case, meaning even if the market sink too fast and it falls below 1.2685, you still can sell your money in the price that you set earlier. Stop order works perfectly well in handling your risks profile.

New Frontiers in FOREX Market Analysis

This type of article is one of the most fun for me to write because it's really just a romp through the imagination. Since the 1990's, I have made a hobby out of exploring new and varied ideas for analyzing the markets, and this is a great opportunity to dust off some of my old notes, publish some of those ideas and perhaps get some feedback on them. I'm also looking forward to using some of the following concepts in my ongoing research work on FOREX price behavior. So put on your "what if..." hats and let's get started!

Market Models - Old & New

Most traders are familiar with the two basic schools of market analysis that we call Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis. In the 1970's, members of the academic community proposed a new model of the market known as the "Efficient Market Hypothesis". This is more commonly known as the "Random Walk Theory" and basically said that the first two schools of thought were both wasting their time. In response to the Random Walk Model, other academics put forth an even newer theory of how markets work called "Behavioral Finance". These are all examples of comprehensive explanations of what factors drive market prices. Here's a brief summary of market models, some of which are only in their infancy:

Fundamental: Market prices are driven by tangible events and conditions in the real world, such as earnings, sales, management, natural disasters, weather, economic conditions, geopolitical tensions and so forth.

Technical: Market prices are driven by what prices have done in the past. As traders observe these past and present price movements, their expectations about future prices lead to feelings of greed and fear which in turn create buying and selling pressures.

Random Walk: Current market prices are efficient reflections of all known fundamental and technical information, so we can discern nothing about future price movements. The factors that cause future price movement will be so varied that such movements can only be random in nature.

Behavioral Finance: Prices are driven by human psychology which is not always rational. Traders may base expectations about price movements, risk and reward on erroneous reasoning, thus causing prices to behave in non-random ways. Bubbles and crashes are classic examples of this.

Chaos Theory: Market prices are part of a non-linear dynamic system in which outputs are re-introduced back into the system as inputs, causing complex behavioral loops and very sensitive dependence on slight variations in conditions.

Fractal Geometry: Price patterns are recursively nested, meaning that a large pattern may be composed of several smaller similar or even identical patterns and so on through all time scales. Elliot Wave Theory is a classic example of this idea.

Scott's Emergent Property Model: I've discussed this one in more detail in other articles, but the idea is basically that identifiable properties of price behavior emerge from the combination of unique individual trading styles of the current market participants. An analogy would be how a person's personality emerges from the combination of individual neurons in their brain. This price behavior changes gradually over time in an evolutionary way in the same way that the behavior of an organism changes over time due to both internal changes in its makeup and external pressures from its environment.

My apologies if I have neglected or grossly mis-represented any of the various ways of explaining what makes the market tick.

Day Trading - Why 98% of People Lose Money in the Markets

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Almost all people that venture into the world of Day Trading do so with grand thoughts of wealth and easy money. 99% of these people will wind up handing their hard earned money to myself and others which have figured out the game. Yes, it is a game that is extremely hard to master and has endless dead ends. It can begin to feel as if you are a mouse in a never ending maze. You can spend years running around the maze working on endless ideas and methods all of which lead to the same inevitable end.. Losing money!

You might be wondering, who is this guy writing this article? How did supposedly he, and others learn the secret to the game. I would like to claim that I have superior intelligence but that would not be true. Like Edison the inventor of the light bulb, once you have done things wrong long enough, lost enough money, and have been beaten down to the point of giving up, only then, if you can muster the fortitude will you finally begin to see through all of the hyped claims of the failed systems and unyielding methods from your past.

The plain truth is, the sooner you stop looking for the easy money the quicker you will begin to understand why and how those that do win the game take an unfair advantage over those that don’t.

Each person's first introduction into the game of trading is always because someone has been sold on the idea that trading is simple and easy if you purchase the “right system” or methodology from the guru of the hour. These marketers are relentless at taking your money. They are system/methodology designers which understand exactly how to manipulate the various system components to fit anyone‘s taste and temperament. How many times have you been told that you simply need to find a system that fits you and your personality. This is a half truth as no system will fit you for very long if it is not consistently profitable.

Most systems being sold on the internet today clearly explain a entry set-up, but are so vague in regards to exit that they are completely useless. I can’t tell you the number of systems/methods that I have personally purchased that are nothing short of out right fraud in regards to their advertising. Most systems have been back-tested and optimized to the point that on paper they look unbelievable, but in real time they simply fall apart. It seems that people are willing, even anxious to hand over their hard earned money to anyone claiming to hold the key to easy riches.

Now that you have been warned about the fraud and false claims within the industry lets discuss one of the primary reasons that most people lose money. It is the bid/ask spread of entering and exiting the market along with the cost of commissions that stack the deck heavily against those that use methods which try to scalp small profits out of the market. These costs can easily cost you any chance of being profitable. Let me explain, if using the S&P 500 e-mini contract, the minimum tick size is .25 point or $12.50. When you enter and exit a position you will be giving up 2 ticks or $25.00 plus commissions to the spread. Lets say you are using a method in which you are trying to achieve a 2 point target or $100.00 with a limited risk of also only $100.00. Your spread give-up and commission will run you at least $30.00 per contract. This means that the position is already deep in the hole before you begin. The market will have to move and extra $30.00 before you will achieve your target. Theoretically in price movement terms, a win is worth $70.00 and a loss will cost you $130.00. You must win almost 2 times to every loss just to breakeven.