Forex News - Trading it for Bigger Profits

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Today, we have more news than ever and its delivered in the click of a mouse and many traders want to trade it and make profits - after all it's the fundamental supply and demand situation that drives forex prices...

No it isn't!

Supply and demand fundamentals are not important by themselves - it's how they are perceived that determines price.

Here is a simple equation for market movement to illustrate the above:

Supply and Demand (facts and news) + Investor Perception = Price

From the above you can see that it is investors who determine price.

We all have the same facts to look at but we don't all draw the same conclusions from what we see and this is the problem when trading news stories. If you could win by trading the news, with today's quality of it and lightening communications, the percentage of traders who would win would be far greater but the fact is:

The same amount of people who lost in forex trading 50 years ago lose today and this statistic won't change because you can't trade news stories in isolation. The problems with trading news stories are greater today than they have ever been.

Why?

Because we all get the information quickly and it's instantly discounted by the market, we all have the information at the same time in any corner of the globe online and no one has an advantage of getting it first before the herd.

The problem that is always present and has been since markets started trading is:

You don't know how the traders are going to view the news because their all driven by their individual motivations and emotions furthermore, the news always reflects the views of the crowd and the crowd is always wrong.

Will Rogers once said:

"I only believe what I read in the papers"

He was joking of course, but it's surprising how many people read a paper or see a view on CNBC and think they can trade it and win - they can't.

FACT:

Markets collapse and turn when they are most bullish and rally when they are most bearish - this is nothing to do with the facts but how the investors perceive them.

News stories can be used but it's not in the way you may think. If a bullish piece of news fails to push market higher, or bearish news fails to push a market lower, then you may have a trend change at hand.

You need to check and to do this, look at a forex chart and see the technical view of price only. Here you are seeing the reality or the truth in black and white. This gives you a detached non emotional view of price and you can decide which way to trade. Using the news in this contrary fashion is a great way to spot situations which you can time entry with your technical indicators.

There is an old saying:

" If you can hold your head, when everyone around you is losing theirs you probably haven't heard the news"

In the above instance you have - but you're not taking the view of the majority. If you use news in the above way and combine it with forex charts to time your trading signal, then you have a powerful combination for bigger forex profits.

Forex Trading News - How To Use it Correctly For Profit

Today, forex trading news is more plentiful than ever. There are numerous sources to choose from and there all delivered at the click of a mouse, so you can get breaking news whenever you wish.

Here we will look at how to use Forex trading news and mistakes to avoid.

First let’s start with a rather startling fact:

100 years ago 90% of traders lost and today the ratio still remains the same.

This is despite better more frequent Forex news, better computers, more powerful software and more information than ever on the markets.

The fact is knowing the news won’t help you win – in fact, it generally helps traders lose! There are 3 main reasons for this:

News is discounted in a split second.

In today’s world of instant communications news is discounted immediately, so by the time you have seen it and had a chance to act upon it, the moment has gone and the market is looking toward the future.

News is Stories

Those analysts are so convincing with their arguments! Their normally great at explaining what has happened - but you can’t trade off what they say, as they have no idea what will happen - there simply stories and opinions.

Will Rodgers once said.

“I only believe what I Read in the papers”

Now he was joking, but its surprising how many traders take what they hear on the news as a recommendation to trade.

News Gets Your Emotions Involved

Humans don’t like to stand alone and the news reflects what the majority want to hear but that is completely different from what you have to do, to trade to win.

The bulk of traders lose and the bulk listen to the news, so if you avoid it, you can step aside and not let your emotions get involved.

If you do this, you can trade in a disciplined fashion and join the elite minority of winners.

If you use forex charts and simply follow price action, you are far more likely to be successful than you would be by following news stories.

WHERE THE NEWS CAN HELP YOU!

There is one great way to use the news:

If you see a very bullish or bearish market and the news supports the prevailing view but the market does not react the way it should – then its time to look for a contrary trade and time your entry points via your forex charts.

It’s a fact that:

Bullish markets collapse when the fundamentals are most bullish and bearish markets rally when the news is at its most bearish.

If you can look for these turning points on your charts and find the news suddenly stops pushing the market the way it should, a contrary trade is developing and a big profitable trade is shaping up.

Finally

The way to use forex news outlined above, is a very powerful profit tool but completely different to the way most forex traders use it!