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FX Currency Trading

Thursday, February 22, 2007

If you have ever traveled outside the United States, you have probably traded in a foreign currency. Every time you travel outside your home country, you have to exchange your country’s currency for the currency used in the country you are visiting. That’s why it is very important that you should know the exchange rate of various currencies used in the world. By this way, the average tourist uses foreign currency exchange. On the other hand, foreign currency traders trade much larger sums of money thousands of times a day.

The majority of trades take place in three main centers of currency trading- the United States, United Kingdom and Japan. The rest of the trading takes place primarily in Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, France, Germany and Australia. The United Kingdom manages the largest share. The United States is second, followed by Japan.

FX currency trading is ongoing 24 hours a day, with some countries just getting started, as others are finishing up their business day. For example, when the trading day opens at 8 a.m. in London, the trading day is ending for Singapore and Hong Kong. When New York opens its trading doors, it’s already 1 p.m. in London. Thus, traders must be alert around the clock, because a major event at an off hour anywhere in the world can shake the markets at any time.

Individual trades in the range of $200 million to $500 million are not uncommon. In fact, the US Federal Reserve estimates that approximately $1.5 trillion dollars are traded every day, and that represents more than $200 every business day of the year for every man, woman and child living on the planet. That’s several times the daily turnover in US government securities, which is the world’s second-largest market. In fact, estimates indicate that quoted price changes occur as frequently as 20 times per minute, and the most active currency rates can change as many as 18,000 times in a single day according to the federal reserve.

Can We Believe the Reports the Government Puts Out?

Since I am not much of a fundamentals trader, I tend to stay away from government statistics. To me, they have very little value. As far as I can see, they are full of errors. Let me explain.

What’s wrong with traditional statistics? They fail to measure what is really going on in the economy because the measurements that are being taken today are completely out of synchronization with reality. In fact, it has become virtually impossible to measure some things, which if not measured, render a variety of economic conclusions virtually worthless. Let’s see what these “immeasurables” are.

Service Orientation

As some economies become service rather than production oriented, it becomes increasingly difficult to measure output. When a nation is primarily a producer of goods, it is relatively easy to measure work output in terms of tons of steel produced, number of automobiles manufactured, miles of road paved, board feet of lumber shipped, etc. But how do you measure the amount of information services provided? How do you measure the output of a think-tank? How do you measure the output of an accounting firm, a legal service, a bank, a financial adviser, or even a trader of futures, options, or shares? Does a trader have an output? Would you measure a trader’s output by the number of round turns he makes? What about the ones where he loses?

Technological Advances

New technology – leading to improvement in quality, quantity, or both, render it extremely difficult to measure productive output. Let me give you an example of what I mean. Forty years ago, Ford Motor Company employed 600 men at their plant just outside of Kansas City, Missouri. Today that plant is operated by just 6 men. What happened to 594 jobs? They have been taken over by robots. The use of robots has created a shorter but improved product cycle. A friend of mine, who is one of the 6 men who work in that plant, sits around doing nothing. He is bored stiff. He takes a notebook computer to work and plays games. But he has to be there in case one of the robots breaks down. The question is, how do you measure his productivity?

At the time I was born, it was common for women giving birth to stay in the hospital for ten days. Today they send women home after a day or two. I would consider that to be an advance in technology, and knowledge, wouldn’t you? Yet when a statistician looks at figures for hospital bed occupancy, he would see a decline.

I have another friend who operates a package delivery service. By careful use of a computer to monitor the amount of traffic on delivery routes at various times of day, his company has been able to increase the number of deliveries made while at the same time decrease the number of delivery vehicles and drivers needed to make those deliveries. Now I happen to think that’s a great improvement. Certainly it is making my friend a more wealthy and successful businessman. But his company’s productivity, as measured by delivery miles driven, would show a drop, and since he used fewer vehicles, that fact would show up as fewer vehicles sold, and less steel produced. Do you see where this is going? We are looking at a problem to which there is no solution. Our concept of a unit of output is all wrong, and there is no way to make it right. Technological advances, especially when they result in rapid quality improvements, are increasingly difficult to measure. Because of our inability to measure real output, our statistics will fail to reflect what is really happening in the economy.

Yet another problem created by technological advances is seen in the flood of new products and services being produced. Many jobs did not exist a few years ago. Neither did the products or services that produced those jobs.

If you are a trader, you probably have had first-hand experience with technological obsolescence. The computer you purchase for your trading is obsolete almost the day you purchase it. Within a year, the trading software you use has also become obsolete. Did you know that the average life of a computer model is now less than 12 months? And this is true for most consumer electronics. Thirty percent of sales are for products that did not exist a year earlier.

Years ago I gave up on the idea of buying a camera. No sooner did I obtain one than it became obsolete. The manufacturer came out with a new model that had more capabilities than the one I just purchased. It was maddening. It caused me great frustration. Worse than that, it irritated my lust gland (the lust gland shares a common duct with the greed gland). I wanted to buy a new camera at least once a year. The only cure was to not own a camera at all. I wonder what that does to the Gross Domestic Production figures. It is the same way today with software. I have had to learn two new operating systems in the past four years. I had to learn to use three different word processors in that same period of time. Is this progress?

Certainly I have made Microsoft Corporation’s output look better, but it has cost me a great deal of precious time to do it. I was able to write “Trading Optures and Futions” in just nine months, but it took me 1-1/2 years to produce it. Why? Because I had to simultaneously learn a new word processor and operating system to produce that manual. Both the operating system and the word processor are now considered obsolete. Is the struggle and fight to learn the quirks in software productive? My assistant and I have spent (wasted) numerous hours trying to get Microsoft Word to produce in a format we can live with. How do you measure all the lost time and money from the many conversions that have to be made because of the use of computers? In fact, many have questioned why all the billions of dollars invested in computers have failed to boost productivity and growth in the way they were supposed to. Does anyone really know the answer?

Online FX Trading

In online FX trading, traders look for a currency that offers the highest return with the lowest risk. For example, if a nation’s financial instruments, such as stocks and bonds, offer high rates of return with relatively low risk, then traders who are foreign to that nation want to buy that currency, thus increasing the demand. Currency is also in demand when its country is going through a growth segment in its business cycle, highlighted by stable prices and a whole range of goods and services for sale. Forex traders who speculate on the values of currencies to earn their keep look for specific signs to indicate when exchange rates may change.

Traders in online FX trading try to predict well in advance the factors like political instability, rising interest rates and economic reforms so that they can get in or out of a currency before others. Correctly guessing where a currency is going and taking a position in that currency at the beginning of the trend can mean huge profits for a trader.

Traders make money either by buying the currency at a lower price and then selling it later at a higher price, or by selling their holdings in currencies of other countries at higher prices before they have time to react negatively to improvements in the first currency. After the markets for their original holding fall, they simply reestablish positions in them at bargain prices.

When a trader purchases a large amount of a particular currency, then he or she is long on the currency. Conversely, when a trader sells a large amount of a currency, then he or she is short on the currency. The Forex market is dominated by four currencies, which account for 80 per cent of the market- the US dollar, the Euro, the Japanese Yen and the British pound.

FOREX Trading Systems – How To Pick One For Huge Gains

FOREX trading systems are big business now as the internet allows anyone to use one and make big profits.

The question traders need answered is - what do they look for when they buy a FOREX trading system to locate the good FOREX systems from the losing majority.

This article will give clear, concise, tips for picking a FOREX trading for huge profits and how to construct your own one for FREE!

Right, lets get started and look at getting FOREX trading systems with the potential to make huge gains.

Choosing a system from a vendor

Many traders choose to buy a FOREX trading system ready made and ready to go. Just plug it in and huge profits come quickly. Well that’s the theory, the reality is different. There are good FOREX trading systems out there but you need to pick wisely, here are some tips.

1. Don’t buy a system that promises 80% accuracy and has little or no drawdown.

We all know this is not true, as we all know drawdown is part of trading a FOREX trading system. These systems always come with hypothetical track records and of course, we can all trade with low drawdown when we know what happened in the past.

2. Look for a system where the rules are revealed

You need to understand the logic before trading.

This is essential as if you don’t understand the logic you won’t have the confidence to trade it with discipline. Avoid black box systems only trade a FOREX system you understand.

3. Look FOREX trading systems that are simple.

They should only contain a few rules or parameters.

It’s a fact that simple systems work best and not ones that are complicated. All the worlds top trading systems are simple!

4. Look for a FOREX trading systems that trades ALL markets with the same rules.

One of the biggest errors traders make is falling for systems that have “unique” rules to trade different markets.

What this basically means is that the vendor cannot get the system to work on the market, so its “curve fitted” i.e. the rules fit the data in hindsight.

Never consider a system that does this!

5. Look for long term trading system

There is a huge market selling short term and day trading systems, but fact is they don’t work as well as long term trend following FOREX trading systems.

6. Get verification

While past performance is no guarantee of future performance some evidence of the system trading successfully by the vendor is a must. Let’s face it, if the vendor is not confident enough to invest his money why should you?

An alternative build your own

You can of course, buy a FOREX trading system and the above will help you locate the good ones, but today it’s pretty easy to build your own.

Energies Update – Did You Make Big Gains On Recent Break We Did! But

Where not here to crow on about that, instead we want use this move as an illustration of how to time a trade correctly. In all markets when they go right great and sure we piled up big profits, but markets can make us all look stupid and they do regularly!

Here we want to go over two ways to cut the risk of trading in energies (and other markets) so lets look at them. Don’t predict. This is one lesson traders never learn.

It was tempting to buy into the support in the crude and unleaded gas, but we waited and used the stochastic indicator to time the entry - when it crossed with bullish divergence, we entered.

Not only does this method help you get in, it also helps you stay out, until the time is right.

We are extremely bullish of natural gas and wanted to get in and waited when prices approached support for the stochastic to give us the buy. It didn’t.

Prices have since dropped. We will get an opportunity, but won’t trade natural gas until support holds and momentum picks up. The lesson is always buy strength and don’t try and pick a bottom, that’s a mugs game.

Pay no attention to the news

Energies (and most other financial markets) are driven by trader psychology. Let’s look at the supposed fundamental reasons for the move today.

Three bits of news that are supposed to be bullish, there are more but check these out:

In Nigeria the world's 12th-largest oil producer and eighth-largest oil exporter unidentified gunmen on

Tuesday kidnapped two Filipino oil-industry employees of Petroleum Geo-Services, a Norway based company

In Norway the world's seventh-largest oil producer and third-largest oil exporter an oil service strike that began Wednesday threatens production.

Exxon's Baytown refinery is having problems restarting earlier this week, and an oil spill in a Louisiana channel affecting some refinery operations also encouraged traders to buy.

Big deal and this moved the price of oil? Don’t think so.

News is always around and most of it has no influence on prices, so don’t pay attention to it. The only bit of news that’s significant is that Iran and America are at loggerheads, but we knew that anyway.

Exploring The World Of Day Trading

Are you looking into a career in day trading? In the past, the tools for day trading were available only to professionals. But thanks to the power of the Internet, everything you need to get started is now conveniently online. If you have a nose for business, guts and a sharp instinct for how the market shifts, the maybe day trading is the job for you.

What is day trading? Basically it is daily, online stock trading with very short investment. The individuals who do this day in and day out are called traders, not investors in the traditional sense. A day trader is someone who will buy a stock that has high volume and liquidity and will sell that same stock within a few minutes up to a few hours.

Day trading happens only during the day. Those who do day trading usually stay glued in front of the computer and monitoring which stocks have a fast turnover. During the day trading, they quickly buy a large number of stocks at a time and sell it once they see the stock gain within the day. Day traders will make a purchase of a stock, hold it for only minutes watching constantly for the stock to go up or down, selling if it goes down only two or three cents and holding if it goes up to about five or six cents and selling. The stock is almost never held over night as there are many other opportunities and a stock that takes hours to move is not worth holding.

Day trading can be a very high paced and stressful lifestyle. There are millions of day traders across North America but it can be a very fast way to lose everything. Some people are making over $5000.00 a day but it takes months and sometimes years to learn and master day trading.

The broader meaning of the term day trading includes those who trade daily from their homes or offices, through Internet brokerages. These day traders might buy and sell stocks in minutes, but might also hold some overnight or longer. The latest buzzword for this is "swing trader," those who keep a stock within in a few days before finally selling them. To some, particularly the so-called bandits, day trading is just a numbers game. They do little research and just watch for moving stocks with good spreads. Others are more scientific about it, relying on news and technical analysis to catch everyday price fluctuations.

Day trading requires a certain amount of capital. Generally, day trading should have enough trading capital to buy at least 1000 shares of any given stock on any particular day. There are very few stocks priced under $20 that have the degree of liquidity necessary to make them suitable for day trading. This means that a novice day trader should normally have day trading capital of at least $20,000 to start. In addition, the new day trader should treat this as 100% risk capital and should not have to unduly worry that the whole amount of this capital may be lost very quickly.

Forex Facts

There are many benefits and advantages for trading currencies on the Foreign Exchange, better known as Forex.

The Forex Exchange was established in 1971. This market grew at a steady rate throughout the 1970’s, but in the 1980’s Forex grew from trading $70 billion per day to over $1.5 trillion each day.

There are many huge players in Forex, but it is accessible to the individual trader. Each lot traded is worth approximately $100,000. By using leverage, an individual trader is only required to have a $1000 investment in the trade. This is a 100:1 leverage. No other market offers this amount of leverage.

Forex is also an extremely liquid market. Because it is so large, you can buy or sell in only seconds where your trade is only a mouse click away. You can also preset an automatic close for your position. This means you don’t have to sit and watch your position, just place the trade, set an exit point and go what you want.

Forex trades virtually 24 hours, 7 days a week. It only closes from Friday afternoon until Sunday evening. This makes it possible to set your own trading hours. If you trade part time and want to place your trade at 3am, log into your account and trade. If you are a full time trader, the same applies. No other market lets you pick the hours you trade.

There are no commissions charged on Forex, only a small transaction fee. This is not possible in any other market, as brokers charge a commission on each trade in all other markets.

Because currencies are traded in pairs, so you are buying one currency and selling the other. For example, if an investor believes the US dollar will gain against the euro, you would buy the US dollar and sell the euro. It’s just that simple.

Computerized Trading

Will trading eventually be done by programmed computers and not by people? Are we really headed that way? The computer age is bringing about unprecedented change in the markets. Even now it is altering the manner in which we conduct business, interpret events, gather information, and keep ourselves entertained.

While computers can expand our intellectual horizons, they can also limit creative interpretation. There is a tendency these days to let computers do the work of designing and discovering rather than relying upon intuition and imagination. All too often this is taking place even when it flies in the face of reality. In a business context, computers reduce problems to statistical probabilities without necessarily considering the broad effects of events and relationships. No computer can keep you safe from those events which come unexpectedly, and which cause markets to go berserk. Wars, sudden shifts in political power and alliances, and natural disasters, can cause markets to become suddenly and extremely volatile. Even when statistics take such extremes into account, how do you defend yourself if you are long and a market crashes?

I’m not saying that computers shouldn’t be used to prove or disprove theories. But keep in mind that the intuition of the human mind has not yet been duplicated by electronic circuitry. Our educated insights are the critical tools with which we learn and comprehend how markets work.

Military Tactics and Trading

Grant and Napoleon had an ability that separated them from other generals, the ability to manoeuvre troops and supplies to their most effective placements under rapidly changing circumstances. Traders should learn how to manage their funds, rework stop placements, and change their position size with changing market conditions. Conducting warfare and commodity trading have many common factors. All modern warfare is derived from the spear and shield, attack and defend, offence and defence. For trading markets, offence is trade entry and defence is the protective stop. Day trading is like guerrilla warfare, which was first used in Europe during the early 1800's when Napoleon placed his brother on the throne of Spain. Attack rapidly then retreat.

Value of Persistence: In the Battle of the Wilderness, Grant let the Southerners know he would never give up and would fight them under the harshest of conditions. After the battle was over, instead of retreating back to Washington to rest, as some past cowardly Northern generals had done, Grant moved south and stopped Lee from sending reinforcements to Atlanta, which fell to Sherman. The Civil War was won from the Battle of the Wilderness, which Grant is still incorrectly thought to have lost. Grant broke the South psychologically after the Battle of the Wilderness. The trader is a successful human being for the courageous act of trying to become a success regardless of his equity statement. Churchill said, "Never give up. Never, never, never give up." That statement defines persistence and commitment. There are many systems that are profitable, yet there is only one way to correctly analyze price action. Those lessons are contained by regular practice reading charts and working out what you see there. Don't give up and you will find them on the charts.

Joe Ross
Trading Educators Inc

Joe Ross has been trading for more than 47 years, and is a well known Master Trader. He has survived all the up and downs of the markets because of his adaptable trading style, using a low-risk approach that produces consistent profits.

Joe is the creator of the Ross hook, and has set new standards for low-risk trading with his concept of "The Law of Charts™." Joe was a private trader for most of his life. In the mid 80's he shift his focus and decided to share his knowledge. After his recovery, he founded Trading Educators in 1988 to teach aspiring traders how to make profits using his trading approach. He has written 12 major books on trading. All of them have become classics and have been translated into many different languages.

Joe holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration from the University of California at Los Angeles. He did his Masters work in Computer Sciences at the George Washington University extension in Norfolk, VA. Joe still tutors, teaches, writes, and trades regularly. Joe is still an active and integral part of Trading Educators.

Foreign Currency Trading is a River of Money - How Forex Rates are Affected by Economics and Politic

There are indicators in every economy of how conditions in that country will affect their money. Domestic employment, imports and exports and changes in the interest rates all effect currency trading.

Interest rates are unique in their relationship with currency. As interest rates increase, foreign investment increases and the basic rules of economics apply to raise the value of the currency. Interest rates adjustments are somewhat predictable in their timing. They follow announcements or regular meetings of the world’s major banking institutions or political economic announcements. Currency trading in turn is related to currency values.

Stability, both politically and economically, is the highly preferred state for investment countries. Terrorism, natural disasters, unemployment, civil unrest tend not to attract foreign currency trading and subsequent value increases in the currency.

We live in such an international world now that events around the world can affect seemingly unrelated currencies, both good and bad. There are indicators, patterns, history and trading experience, which are all used to predict the future. These indicators are used for Forex trading.

The matter of scale must also be figured into the discussion of influences on currency trading. Hourly or daily fluctuations are on one scale. Monthly or yearly patterns may be on a different scale for many Forex trading pairs.

There are many pairings and there are two sides to every trade. This may sound quaint, but it is a reality of the factors that affect the value of currencies. There are natural disasters, overt and covert political moves and daily domestic situations all at play in determining currency rates and foreign trading.

Foreign currency trading is a river of money, controlled by domestic politics, economics, and world events.

Forex System 24 Hour Trading - Transparent Currency Trading Market Always Open for Business

Somewhere in the world it is the business day. Normal people are doing normal things, during daylight hours. On the other side of the world, in the middle of the night, a Forex trader is making money trading that country’s currency.

In the Forex system, the London market is big, the New York market is big, Japan, Australia. It depends what currency trading pairs you like. Some pairs are more volatile, some are steady. But you can buy and sell them 24 hours a day. Except Saturday and Sunday. Go figure.

One caveat, there isn’t always activity to follow for 24 hours a day. A bit like watching paint dry. But certain pairs have primary times and secondary times when you can trade with regularity.

So, why is this significant? The main significance of 24-hour trading is that foreign currency trading influencing announcements happen on a global scale. On a global clock. And when they are released, they can affect FX trading, whether it is the ‘normal’ time or not. And you can be there to profit. Just make sure you’re awake and trading the right way! At 3:30 a.m. local time.

Forex trading is equally available to everyone. Anywhere, anytime. And that is very exciting in comparison to stocks, equities and futures. Within reason, you can trade when you want. You can take your kids to school, you can sleep into noon. And trade around it. Whatever your life dictates for you.

Forex Charts, Forex Trading Systems - No easy way to find Forex Charts and Forex Trading Signals

If you’re new to forex, you’re going to need forex charts. As you develop your forex trading system, use the demo accounts that many trade brokers provide. They’ll generally provide free forex charts as part of their demo forex trading system.

Search the Internet for “forex” or “forex charts.” The choices will be a bit overwhelming. You will have to do research to get a good match, both with the forex trading system and the forex charts themselves. You may have to mix and match to get your specialized needs met.

As you refine your skills, you’ll find you’re more discerning of the tools. And you’ll begin to notice more features on the forex charts. The forex trading signals may be quite standard on many sites, but how they integrate the forex trading signals with the forex charts may not function well with your style.

Search and you’ll find forex trading signals that fit closely with your requirements. Your forex trading system will become more and more refined with practice. And that’s the best way to learn forex – practice with a demo account.

Learning the forex charts and the forex trading system of different brokers will be frustrating to start. Work through it, it will be worth it. Don’t accept the first one you try. Or even the one your friend uses. Forex trading system and forex charts are very personal. And you’re going to be spending a lot of time together. Get comfortable.

The only way to pick a forex trading system and forex charts is to take recommendations and suggestions from articles, trainers and friends. But then make it your own. Find a perfect fit for your forex trading system.

Technical Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Charts Is Only A Guide, Not A Crystal Ball

Technical analysis of forex charts is the using of previous technical data to make decisions on what might happen in the foreign exchange market. It is understanding the various forex signals, such as moving averages, stochastic, and MAC-D indicators. As well, the trends of past flow of the foreign exchange charts are used to predict the future.

The technical analysis is based on numbers, past prices, but you can use indicators that represent the calculations of these numbers, without doing the math yourself.

We are looking at what forex prices were to anticipate what prices will be. Forex charts come in many configurations. You get to determine which forex signals you view at any given time. Whether you use candlesticks or not, it is what you can ‘see’ making patterns that can be anticipated. Generally the forex signals are produced by a formula which can calculate the likelihood of an event.

All technical analysis and forex charts are about history. They relate only to what has happened. Their forecasts of future foreign exchange prices must be taken as a guide only. They serve to explain what has happened in the past, they do not explain the future.

Another aspect of the technical analysis of foreign exchange charts and forex signals is the scale of time over which you focus. Many people like long-term trends, whereas some are more like day traders and get their forex charts for short periods of time. You can get forex charts by the hour day, week, month or year. The activity that was so significant to you yesterday, may just be a blip in a long-term foreign exchange chart. All these forex signals need to be understood in relationship with each other.

For more effective technical analysis you need to understand the patterns of the foreign exchange charts. And whether they indicate the price is in a trending pattern or a trading pattern. Prices do tend to flow, they have trends, even cycles. This is even more apparent in the longer time line forex charts.